Showing posts with label Forex trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex trading. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Forex Trading Systems Types of Trading Systems

There are basically two types of Forex trading systems, mechanical and discretionary systems. The trading signals that come out of mechanical systems are mainly based on technical analysis applied in a systematic way (technical indicators, chart patterns, etc).
On the other hand, discretionary systems use experience, intuition or judgment on entries and exits.
Which type produces better results? Or more importantly, which one better fits your trading style?
In this section, we will try to answer the question above. We will first analyze the pros and cons of each system approach.

Mechanical Systems
Advantages
  • This kind of system can be automated and backtested efficiently.
  • They have very rigid rules. Either, there is a trade or there isn’t.
  • Mechanical traders are less susceptible to emotions than discretionary traders.

Disadvantages
  • Most traders backtest Forex trading systems incorrectly. In order to produce accurate results you need tick data.
  • The Forex market is always changing. The Forex market (and all markets) has a random component. The market conditions may look similar, but they are never the same.
  • A system that worked successfully in the past doesn’t necessary mean it will work in the future.

Discretionary Systems

Advantages
  • Discretionary systems are easily adaptable to new market conditions.
  • Trading decisions are based on experience. Traders learn to see which trading signals have a higher probability of success.

Disadvantages
  • They cannot be backtested or automated, since there is always a decision to be made based on judgment.
  • It takes time to develop the experience required to trade successfully and track trades in a discretionary way. In the early stages this can be dangerous.

Now, which approach is better for Forex traders?
It is advisable to always start trading a mechanical system, as you gain experience, you will realize which signals produce better results but this requires time and experience, so start first with a mechanical system. Another point you should take in consideration is if you are a trader that finds it hard to follow your trading signals, then you are better off using a mechanical system, where your judgment won’t play an important role in your system. You only take the trades that your system signals.
If the psychological barriers that affect every trader (fear, greed, anger, etc.) puts you in unwanted scenarios, you are also better off trading mechanical systems, because you only need to follow what your system is telling you, go short, go long, close a trade. No other decision has to be made.
On the other hand, if you are a disciplined and experienced trader, then you are better off using a discretionary system, because discretionary systems adapt to the market conditions and you are able to change your trading conditions as the market changes. For instance, you have a target of 60 pips on a long trade, the market goes up quickly reaching 50 pips in your favor in a few minutes, allowing you to change the target level to 100 pips. These kinds of decisions are nice to adapt once you have enough experience, however it could be dangerous at early stages.
Does it mean that trading a discretionary system has no rules? This is absolutely incorrect. Trading discretionary systems means that once a trader finds his/her setup, the trader then decides what to do. But every trader still needs certain rules that need to be followed, such as the size of the position, conditions that have to be met before thinking to get into the market, and so on.
Whether you choose to be a discretionary or a mechanical trader there are some important points you should take in consideration:
  1. You need to make sure the Forex trading system you are using totally fits your personality. Otherwise you will find yourself outguessing your system (develop it yourself).
  2. You also need to clearly define your rules and most importantly have the discipline to follow them.
  3. Take your time to build the perfect system for you. It is not easy and requires time and hard work, but in the end, if done correctly, it will give you consistent profitable results.

Thursday, December 31, 2020

Forex Trading,Some Points to Take in Consideration

Here are some important points you need to take in consideration while creating your trading system.
1. Always be skeptical about your own ideas, focus only on results. Sometimes is easy to track trading opportunities, what is hard is to capitalize on them and make money from them. The performance of any trading system should be measured with actual trading (either demo or an account with limited funds).
2. Sometimes you lose even when you have followed your system to the rules. Losses are part of the game, there is no possible way to avoid them, and we need to learn to lose. So if you have followed your system 100% and took a loss, celebrate it! The only way to stay ahead of the game is by rigorously following your system.
3. Sometimes while trading large positions you can lose control of your emotions. Don't be overly aggressive with the market and follow a well planned money management technique. It should tell you what you are going to risk on your next trade.
4. Try to understand why your system works, this way you will develop the required confidence in yourself and your system.
5. There will always be some “indicator” that could have kept you out of a losing trade. But remember your system is not designed to win all your trades, but to win most of them.
6. When you finally created your system, describe it in simple and logical terms. If a 15 year old kid is not able to understand it, then something is wrong with it.
7. Use only 2-3 indicators: one indicator to identify the trend and one or two indicators or variables for entries and exits. The more indicators you use, the more complicated your system becomes. Most of the time “the simpler the system the better performance it will have”. Also use non-correlated indicators, do not choose two indicators that are supposed to measure the same market condition.
8. Test your system over large data samples (over 50 trades) and in various market conditions, this way you can see under what conditions your system works better.
9. If you decide to trade several currency pairs, try non-correlated pairs. For instance, if you trade long the Euro and long The Pound, your are likely to get the same result on both of them, elevating your risk if the market goes against you.
10. News trading? Determine whether you are going to keep your trades open during important news announcements. If you are trading for the short term you are likely to keep tight stops, and an important news announcement might hit your stop loss level.
11. While you are in a trade, open your mind to every possibility, sometimes you don't see or ignore evidence against your trade.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Forex Trading Mistakes - Not Being Aware of Humane Nature

 So far, we have learned that trading should be undertaken similarly to any other business. There are losses as in any other business (like inventories not sold), but at the same time, it is also important to understand that trading itself is like no other endeavor. Some attitudes that could have given great results in any other task in life could have disastrous effects when it comes to trading. Some of them are listed below.

Fight! Till the End
Since we were kids, we are all taught to fight as hard as we could and do everything in our hands to achieve the desired results or get what we want.
When it comes to trading, the results could be far different. This is commonly named in the trading environment as “marrying one position”. Once you enter a position, you are convinced that it is a winner. Just as you got in, the trade goes against you and you might think “it has got to go somewhere first”. As it keeps going against you, you are still convinced that the trade is going to be a winner. Then you will probably think “operators or money makers are trying to scare us”. As your trade keeps going against you will keep telling yourself “hold it, hold it”. Then you realize the trade has gone too far. This makes it hard to take the loss, and you will probably say “I will wait to get break even, it probably wasn’t a good trade after all”. And the next thing you know is boom! Margin call....
The best thing to do in order to avoid this happening to us is to follow our trading system. Remember, the first time you violate your rules, could also be the last time you trade.

Trial and Error
This is a common practice in many tasks of life. And often it is the only way to get the desired results. Like in the scientific arena in some of the most important findings, scientists actually weren’t looking for what they found. It was the result of trial and error.
In the trading environment, doing this in a real account, will lead you to wipe out your trading funds. You cannot start trading your real account trying different indicators, patterns or systems to see if it gives you the results you are looking for, or if the system fits you.
You need to find what systems/indicators suit you before and not after you start trading your real account.

100%
Since kids, we were taught that we should try as hard as we could to achieve an A or an A+ (100 or 90%) on our grades. Getting those results was proof that we understood any given subject. And of course some of us got a little present as an incentive to keep trying hard.
In the trading environment, this could give us the wrong idea that having a system that is right 70% of the time is an average system, when in fact is an excellent system.
This kind of thinking could lead us to an eternal search for more accurate systems (the aforementioned Holy Grail).

FACT - These kinds of attitudes might make perfect sense in any other endeavor but they complicate our trading careers. For this reason, we need to open our minds to every possibility, even if it doesn't make sense in other areas.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Forex Trading Mistakes, Lack of Discipline

Discipline is a very broad word when it comes to trading. But it all comes down to one sentence, if you have the discipline required to be a good trader, your chances of success in this business will get higher, if you don't, you need to work on it so you could reach your trading goals.
It requires discipline to develop your trading system. Most of us are eager to enter a trade when it all begins. But if you don't develop the guidelines to follow on each trade, I am afraid the trading adventure will end sooner than you think. It requires time, effort and hard work to develop the system.
It requires discipline to follow your trading system. As stated before, there are no better decisions than those made by following your system. Take for instance the following scenarios:

1. You followed your system and made a winning trade.
OUTCOME: You will gain confidence in yourself and your system

2. You followed the system and lost the trade.
OUTCOME: Losses are unavoidable, you followed you system and it will give you confidence in yourself, because you know losses are part of this business.

3. You took a trade with no signal from your system and lost.
OUTCOME: You made a mistake and it turned out as a negative experience. You will now think it twice before entering the market with no signal.

4. You didn’t follow your system and didn’t take a signaled trade that turned out a winning transaction.
OUTCOME: Confidence in yourself will drop substantially.
As you can see here, mistakes are to be valued in terms of the decision made, not in terms of the money made or lost. We will develop more on this later on.
Discipline is also required when it comes to your working environment. To establish your working hours, to organize yourself, etc.

FACT - Discipline is a must in the Forex business. We will elaborate further on this subject in the following lessons.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Forex Trading, Not Using Money Management

 Money Management (MM) is one of the essential parts of trading. The main purpose of MM is to avoid the risk of ruin. The lack of using MM is one of the reasons most traders lose their trading accounts.
MM basically answers the next question: how much to risk on each individual trade? It should not be confused with risk and trade management (pyramiding, scaling out, trailing stops, where to place stops, etc.) MM tells you how big or what size the next trade should be. 


Most traders just focus on the profit side of each trade and totally forget about the risk side. In other words, they think the trade is a winner before placing it, and therefore they do not pay any attention to the consequences a losing trade could produce on your trading account. But remember, every trade is statistically independent from each other. Although the outcome of a series of trades is predictable, there is no possible way to forecast the outcome of each individual trade.
The best systems available are only right around 60 or 70% of the time. For every 10 trades, there is a possibility to have 3 or 4 losing trades. If we don't pay attention to these 3 or 4 trades, we could end up losing month after month, or worse yet, blowing up (losing) our entire account.
We will never know which trade will be a winner and which one a loser, never. So MM should be applied in every single trade, regardless of what you think the outcome of the trade will be.
Even with a system that is right 90% of the time, you could end up broke if you do not apply a sound money management technique.
MM also helps us in the winning side of every trade, when applying MM techniques we could benefit from the geometric growth of our trading account. As your account grows, you will trade larger amounts according to the MM technique applied.

FACT - If you do not have a system that is right 100% of the time you should us Money Management (meaning you should use it because such a system does not exist), regardless of how big or small your trading account is. We will never know the outcome of the next trade, and this one trade could be the last one if you do not apply MM. using MM is not an option, it is a must if you want to achieve your trading goals. You need to do whatever you need to do to be able to trade the next day, week, or year.
If you want to be in this business for the long haul, apply proper trading sizing techniques.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Forex Trading, Not Having a System

 Some traders make trading decisions without any methodology or system. Imagine yourself on a trip in which you intend to drive to the west coast. If you don't study the route to take, where to rest, or you don't even know what cities or villages you are going to pass by, you will probably end up in the east coast, or on the north border, but most importantly you won’t know in the middle of your adventure if you are on the right path. On the other hand, if you know the route to take, villages and cities you are going to pass by, you will know you did something wrong should you drive into an unknown village. At this point, you will review your route, turn around and get on the right route.
The same goes for trading, if you do not use a system or methodology you won’t know what you are doing wrong until it is too late and your trading account is in great danger.
You cannot get into a trade because you think or believe the price is going to go up or down. You need a plan of action, a trading plan that will get you in and will guide you through each trade.
Imagine a trader at the end of the month; her trading account is up, the best month ever. Then she decides to go back and review all the trades made during that month. When looking at the trades she realizes there is no possible way to replicate those results because all of them were entered without any system what so ever, in a word, randomly. In other words, she got lucky. The same goes when everything goes wrong, she will not be able to discover what she is doing wrong because she is not following any system.
The most important thing about having a system is that all the rules that govern it were made when there was no money at risk. This way you are sure that every decision taken based on the system is in your best interests. These decisions are not clouded by psychological factors (fear, greed, hope, etc.) that are present when real money is at risk.

FACT - You need a system or methodology.
This will help you realize whether what you are doing is right or wrong. It will also guide you through each trade. We all make mistakes occasionally, but recognizing them gives you a chance to study, learn from and work past them. Remember, the only way to get consistent results is by strictly following your trading system.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

Monday, March 24, 2014

How To Be Successful Forex Trader - Looking for Excitement

 Some other traders are attracted to the Forex market or any other financial market because of the excitement that is to be and be named a trader. And to tell you the truth, it is very exciting. But if this is the main reason you were attracted to the Forex market, or more precisely, this is the reason you are still trading or interested in trading the Forex market, sooner or later you will discover the most expensive adventure you have ever known.
At first, it is all excitement, but as the time goes by, and traders get more involved in the trading process, they realize it is not as easy they thought it would be. All the excitement calms down, and it becomes an obsession. At this phase, only the 5% of all traders, the ones that are consistent profitable, still think it is exciting.
Believe me, there is nothing less exciting than losing money month after month. This happens to around 90% of all traders.
I am aware most of us think trading is exciting, and there is nothing wrong with that, as long as it is not the main reason you are still trading or intend to trade.
There are many other exciting adventures that are way cheaper than trading. Analyze it, because trading, if treated this way, could be a very expensive adventure.

FACT - Yes, trading is exciting, but this should not be the main reason you are trading or intend to trade. Do some thinking on it, otherwise, you will find out the hard way as many have done.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Important Consideration about Technical Indicators

Remember that some indicators work best during trending markets while others generate best results under ranging or trendless conditions.
For this reason it is important to choose different indicators for different market conditions. For instance, we could use one oscillator to forecast tops and bottoms when the market is ranging, but once either the top or bottom is broken, we could use the CCI to take signals based on extreme levels.
To trade based only on one indicator could be risky, we need to adapt our strategy to the different market conditions, and combine preferably indicators of different nature, for example, use oscillators in combination with candlestick reversal patterns to get our trading signals.
The other extreme is not good either, using a lot of indicators could complicate trading decisions and we could end up with a system that is hardly tradable.
For now, get familiar with each indicator and pattern studied in these past three lessons. Try to see which one of them fits you better and what combination of technical tools could help you achieve better results.

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Pivot Points

In a few words, a pivot point (PP) is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.
Why PP works?
They work simply because many traders and investors (including bank and institutional traders) use and trust them. It is known by every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength or weakness of any market.
There are several ways to calculate the pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).
Warning – some pretty boring maths ahead. The good news is that almost all charting platforms will automatically calculate this for you and draw the lines on in whatever pretty colour you like. But as this is the ADVANCED course we think you should have a basic idea of how they are calculated.
Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:
Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458
The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2436
So, what does this number tell us? It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. In addition, if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. In both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.
Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there has been an ongoing battle deciding at what times we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT (obviously the high and low in between those hours).
Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated using the PP as a reference.
Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) – H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L
Support 2 (S2) = PP – (R1 – S1)
Resistance 2 (R2 ) = R1 + (PP – S1)
Where, H is the High of the previous period
L is the low of the previous period
Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2436
S1 = (1.2436 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2398
R1 = (1.2436 * 2) – 1.2376 = 1.2496
R2 = 1.2496 + (1.2436 – 1.2398) = 1.2338
S2 = 1.2436 – (1.2496 – 1.2398) = 1.2534
These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.
In the next chart we have calculated the PP and the support and resistance levels for September 5th.
S2 = 1.2616
S1 = 1.2579
PP = 1.2545
R1 = 1.2508
R2 = 1.2474
Forex Pivot Points
[Chart 1]
Vertical lines separate sessions (4th and 5th of September). As we can see, the market went rapidly below the PP level. From that point on, we should be careful with longs, and start thinking on shorts, because the sentiment of traders and investors is turning to “net short”.
Notice how the PP represents a resistance on early September 5th. Notice also S1 rejected twice the price as it approached the S1 level representing good trading opportunities. Finally, S2 marked a good support, this indicates weakness on current bears, which tells us that the sentiment is not as strong as it was at the beginning of the trading session.
On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day). This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so, we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. In addition, we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the weekly or monthly pivot point is mostly used by long term traders, and as we said, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Technical Analysis, technical indicators,Bollinger Bands (BB)

Indicator was developed by John Bollinger. This indicator consists of three different components:
- A simple moving average in the middle
- An upper band, which is calculated by adding 2 standard deviations to the middle MA
- A lower band, which is calculated by subtracting 2 standard deviations to the middle MA.
The principal objective of this indicator is to measure the volatility at any given moment relative to historical volatility of any given currency pair.

Bollinger Bands Usage

Usage No 1
Volatility. When the upper and lower bands expand it indicates more volatility relative to previous periods. When the bands get narrower it indicates the volatility at the moment is lower than the volatility of previous periods.
Bollinger Bands to measure volatility
[Chart 24]

Usage No 2
- Bands as support and resistance. Sometimes the extreme bands can act as important support and resistance levels.
Thus, we can take trades as the price bounces off the bands, as prices break out the bands, etc. This type of trading is recommended on pullbacks or retracements and during trendless conditions (to scalp). Of course, with the help of other technical indicators the signals will increase their accuracy.
Bollinger Bands as Support and Resistance
[Chart 25]
The signals that are taken in direction of the trend offer much better accuracy than those taken against the trend.
The psychology behind this signal is that most of the time the market will be inside both bands. When the market reaches either band, it will tend to retrace or switch directions to the other side as “it has reached its normal deviation”.

Friday, February 7, 2014

Technical Analysis, technical indicators,Stochastics (STC)

Developed by George Lane in the 50´s. Stochastics compare the last closing price relative to its trading range over the chosen periods. The values of the stochastic oscillator range between 0 and 1, or more precisely between 0% and 100%.
When the reading of the oscillator is near zero, it indicates that the last period closing price closed near the bottom of the n-period range. A reading close to 1 indicates that the last period closing price closed near the top of the n-period range.
A 9 period stochastic will measure the last close relative to the last 9 periods low and high range.
There are three types of stochastics: fast, slow and full stochastics. The slow stochastic is simply a smoother (less whipsaws but less sensitive to price fluctuations) version of the fast stochastic. The full stochastic adds an additional parameter which makes it even smother than the slow stochastic.

Stochastic Usage
Usage No 1 - Overbought/oversold conditions. Stochastics are probably the most used indicator for these purposes. A buy signal is given when the readings are below 20% and rises above this level (buy signal – oversold condition). A sell signal occurs when the reading is above 80% and falls back down below that level (sell signal - overbought condition). When the market is trending, it is advised to take only those signals that are in direction of the trend.

Stochastics as an Oscillator
[Chart 19]
As we already mentioned, stochastics are probably the indicator that gives overbought and oversold signals more accurately. The signal is triggered when the indicator returns to the neutral territory from an oversold or overbought condition.

Usage No 2 - Divergence trading. As other indicators, stochastics also give divergence signals.
Stochastics to trade Divergence
[Chart 20]
This is the same chart we used for the RSI divergence. As you can see the RSI works better and signals a clearer divergence. Either way, the divergence is present.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Technical Analysis, Falling & Rising Wedge

You may wonder why is it that we have the falling and rising wedge in a separate section. The reason is simple, these patterns can be either reversal or continuation patterns. Depending on where the pattern was formed and its slope it could signal a continuation of the trend or a trend reversal. 
Let’s see each one of them.

Continuation Rising Wedge
As all wedges, this one begins wide and contracts as the market reaches new highs:
Rising Wedge Continuation Pattern
[Image 3]
Continuation rising wedges are a bearish continuation pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going up. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the support trendline.

What makes this wedge a continuation pattern?
The slope of the wedge is against the previous trend.

Continuation Rising Wedge in Action
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern in Action
[Chart 6]
This rising wedge is a continuation pattern because the slope (upward) of the wedge is against the trend (downtrend). When the pattern got completed (support trendline got broken), led to further downside movements.

Continuation Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern
[Image 9]
Continuation falling wedges are a bullish continuation pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going down. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the resistance trendline.
What makes this wedge a continuation pattern?
The slope of the wedge is against the previous trend.

Continuation Falling Wedge in Action
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern
[Chart 6]
This falling wedge is a continuation pattern because the slope (downward) of the wedge is against the direction of the trend (uptrend). When the market broke the support trendline and the pattern got completed, it led to further gains.

Reversal Rising Wedge
This pattern begins wide and contracts as the market keeps rising:
Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Image 7]
Reversal rising wedges are a bearish reversal pattern found at the end of the uptrend. Starts out wide, and narrows as the market reaches new highs forming a rising wedge when two or more points are connected. The pattern is completed when the price breaks the support trendline.

What makes this wedge a reversal pattern?
The slope of the wedge is in direction of the trend. In this case the market was trending up and the slope of the wedge is upward.

Reversal Rising Wedge in Action
Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Chart 6]
This rising wedge is a reversal pattern because the slope (upward) of the wedge is in the same direction of the trend (uptrend). The pattern is completed when the market breaks the support-trendline. Notice the reversal rising wedge here forecasts a retracement, not a trend reversal. The market movement after a wedge or any reversal pattern could produce: a trend reversal, the beginning of a retracement or a consolidation period.

Reversal Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Image 7]
Reversal falling wedges are a bullish reversal pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going down. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the resistance trendline.

What makes this wedge a reversal pattern?
The slope of the wedge is in direction of the trend. In this case the market was trending up and the slope of the wedge is upward.

Reversal Falling Wedge in Action
Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Chart 6]
This falling wedge is a reversal pattern because the slope (downward) of the wedge is in the same direction of the trend (downtrend). The pattern is not complete until the market breaks the resistance trendline.

Commonly used target for all wedges
Measure the height of the pattern (in its widest side) in terms of pips, and then subtract/sum the same amount of pips from the eventual break out level.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Technical Analysis, Major Candlestick Reversal Patterns 2

5- Engulfing Reversal Pattern
In the image below, engulfing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.
Engulfing Pattern 
Formation

Engulfing patterns consist of two candlesticks. The first one is usually a small candle, and must be in direction of the prevailing trend (in an uptrend the short candlestick must be white and in a downtrend the candlestick must be black) while the second candlestick must be against the prevailing trend and is usually a long candlestick. Candles should have little or no shadows at all. The body of the second candlestick must cover or embrace the body of the first candle (shadows are not taken into consideration).

Psychology behind the Shooting Star and Examples
In a downtrend or downside movement where bulls have control over the markets, a bullish engulfing pattern indicates that bulls finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices (and intend to sell back at higher prices) and pushed the market up above the open price. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.
In an uptrend or upside movement where bulls have control over prices, a bearish engulfing pattern indicates that bears finally took total control over the market; they were attracted by the higher prices and pushed the market down below the open price. This might signal a short-term reversal pattern as clearly bears or sellers have taken control of the market. .
Bullish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go long!
Bearish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go short!

Bullish Engulfing in Action
Bullish Engulfing in Action


In the 5 min EURJPY chart a bullish engulfing pattern appears at the bottom of the range signaling a possible change in direction. The market goes up because of the bullish sentiment at lower prices. Bears notice bulls are really confident at those levels.
Bearish Engulfing in Action
Bearish Engulfing Pattern in Action


In the AUDUSD 5 min chart, an engulfing pattern appears at the top of the range signaling a “change in direction”. Remember that reversal pattern not always forecast trend reversals, correction or consolidation periods are always a possibility.

6- Piercing Reversal Patterns
In the image below, piercing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.
Piercing Pattern


* The bearish piercing pattern is also called “Dark Cloud Cover”. For the sake of simplicity, in this course we will always refer to this pattern as bearish piercing pattern.
Formation
Piercing patterns, as engulfing patterns, are also made from two candlesticks. Both candlesticks should have long bodies and small or no shadows. The first candlestick must be in direction of the prevailing trend and the second against it. The further the second candle goes against the trend the more significant the pattern is. Candlesticks could have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Piercing Patterns and Examples
In a downtrend or downside movement where buyers have control over the markets, a bullish piercing pattern indicates that buyers finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices and pushed the market up near the highs of the day. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.
A bearish piercing pattern, or most commonly called dark cloud cover indicates that bears liked to sell on those higher prices, gaining temporary control. If the move is strong enough, bulls will close their longs making the price sell off. The close price of the second candle must be below the midpoint of the first candle body.
Bullish Piercing Patterns are signals to go long!
Bearish Piercing Patterns are signals to go short!
Bullish Piercing in Action
Bullish Engulfing Pattern


Hey, forget about the red box! We will get to that a few lines below. The bullish piercing pattern at the yellow box illustrates what the balance of supply and demand in this scenario: bears make a final push down, but bulls take command of the market pushing them up again.

What’s the red box?
It was the result of the Interest rate announcement from Canada. Consensus was no change but the Bank of Canada decided to cut .25%, it’s a 100 pip 5 min candlestick.
Bearish Piercing in Action
Bearish Piercing in Action


This is a valid bearish piercing pattern at the GBPUSD 30 min chart. Small shadows, first candle in direction of the movement and second candles against it. This pattern marks the end of the retracement. 

7- Morning Star & Evening Star
In the image below, morning and evening stars are represented by the last three candlesticks of each illustration.
Evening and Morning Star



Formation
Morning and evening stars are made from three candlesticks. The first candlestick is always in the direction of the trend or current direction, the second candlestick could be a black or white one while the third must be against the prevailing trend or direction. Usually candlesticks in these formations have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Evening and Morning Stars and Examples
The morning star pattern begins with a long bearish candlestick or big sell off (in direction of the prevailing trend). At the second candle, the bears are not sure anymore about the downtrend continuing its path. At this point, the buyers feel a little stronger than before. Buyers take total control of prices on the next candle making the market rally. The closer the candlestick closes from the first candlestick open price, the stronger the pattern.
Evening stars begin with a long white candlestick in direction of the prevailing trend. At this point, the bulls are still confident about the uptrend. At the next candle though, the bears start selling attracted by the higher prices. This candle represents a short period of indecision or a fierce battle between bulls and bears. On the third candlestick, bears take total control of the situation making the price sell off. The larger the third candle is, the stronger the reversal.
Morning Stars are long signals.
Evening Stars are short signals.
Morning Star in Action
Morning Star


In this USDCHF 1 min chart we see two morning stars patters that finally capped the downside movements. The trend wasn’t reversed, at least there some support is found around those levels.
Evening Star in Action
Evening Star in Action


GBPJPY 1 min chart, the evening star at the beginning of the chart makes the market head down to reach lower levels. Bearish pressure is self evident: bears start selling and bulls take profits (sell back), this makes the market drop like a rock.

8- Harami Reversal Patterns
In the image below, Harami patters are represented by the last two candlesticks of each illustration.
Harami Pattern



Formation
Both, bearish and bullish harami are made from two candlesticks. The first one is always a large candlestick in direction of the trend or current move and the second one against the direction of the trend or current move. Candlesticks could have small or no shadow at all. The body of the second candlestick must be inside the body of the first one.
Although the size of the body of the second candlestick is smaller than the size of the first one, it should be “larger” than usual.

Psychology behind Bearish and Bullish Harami and Examples
In the bullish harami, bulls stop bear dominance and take temporary control over the market. The first candlestick of the bullish harami is the final push of bears while the second one means bears are feeling more confident about further upside movements.
In the bearish harami, bears step in after a high volume bull push. Prices are high enough to start opening their short positions. The closer the second candlestick closes to the open of the first one, the stronger the short sentiment.
Bullish Harami are long signals
Bearish Harami are short signals
Bullish Harami in Action
Bearish Harami in Action


As we have mentioned before, reversal patterns not only signal trend reversals, they also signal possible retracements and consolidation periods. In this case, the harami pattern signals a correction period. Now, take in consideration this is a weekly chart, from the top of the pattern to the bottom of the retracement there are around 500 pips.

Bearish Harami in Action
Bearish Harami in Action


In the USDCHF 4H chart above, a bearish harami pattern appears after the retracement. It could signal the end of the retracement; traders could resume their short positions.