Forex Trading Mistakes - Not Being Aware of Humane Nature

 So far, we have learned that trading should be undertaken similarly to any other business. There are losses as in any other business (like inventories not sold), but at the same time, it is also important to understand that trading itself is like no other endeavor. Some attitudes that could have given great results in any other task in life could have disastrous effects when it comes to trading. Some of them are listed below.

Fight! Till the End

Since we were kids, we are all taught to fight as hard as we could and do everything in our hands to achieve the desired results or get what we want.

When it comes to trading, the results could be far different. This is commonly named in the trading environment as “marrying one position”. Once you enter a position, you are convinced that it is a winner. Just as you got in, the trade goes against you and you might think “it has got to go somewhere first”. As it keeps going against you, you are still convinced that the trade is going to be a winner. Then you will probably think “operators or money makers are trying to scare us”. As your trade keeps going against you will keep telling yourself “hold it, hold it”. Then you realize the trade has gone too far. This makes it hard to take the loss, and you will probably say “I will wait to get break even, it probably wasn’t a good trade after all”. And the next thing you know is boom! Margin call....

The best thing to do in order to avoid this happening to us is to follow our trading system. Remember, the first time you violate your rules, could also be the last time you trade.

Trial and Error

This is a common practice in many tasks of life. And often it is the only way to get the desired results. Like in the scientific arena in some of the most important findings, scientists actually weren’t looking for what they found. It was the result of trial and error.

In the trading environment, doing this in a real account, will lead you to wipe out your trading funds. You cannot start trading your real account trying different indicators, patterns or systems to see if it gives you the results you are looking for, or if the system fits you.

You need to find what systems/indicators suit you before and not after you start trading your real account.

100%

Since kids, we were taught that we should try as hard as we could to achieve an A or an A+ (100 or 90%) on our grades. Getting those results was proof that we understood any given subject. And of course some of us got a little present as an incentive to keep trying hard.

In the trading environment, this could give us the wrong idea that having a system that is right 70% of the time is an average system, when in fact is an excellent system.

This kind of thinking could lead us to an eternal search for more accurate systems (the aforementioned Holy Grail).

FACT - These kinds of attitudes might make perfect sense in any other endeavor but they complicate our trading careers. For this reason, we need to open our minds to every possibility, even if it doesn't make sense in other areas.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

Forex Trading, Not Using Money Management

 Money Management (MM) is one of the essential parts of trading. The main purpose of MM is to avoid the risk of ruin. The lack of using MM is one of the reasons most traders lose their trading accounts.

MM basically answers the next question: how much to risk on each individual trade? It should not be confused with risk and trade management (pyramiding, scaling out, trailing stops, where to place stops, etc.) MM tells you how big or what size the next trade should be. 

Most traders just focus on the profit side of each trade and totally forget about the risk side. In other words, they think the trade is a winner before placing it, and therefore they do not pay any attention to the consequences a losing trade could produce on your trading account. But remember, every trade is statistically independent from each other. Although the outcome of a series of trades is predictable, there is no possible way to forecast the outcome of each individual trade.

The best systems available are only right around 60 or 70% of the time. For every 10 trades, there is a possibility to have 3 or 4 losing trades. If we don't pay attention to these 3 or 4 trades, we could end up losing month after month, or worse yet, blowing up (losing) our entire account.

We will never know which trade will be a winner and which one a loser, never. So MM should be applied in every single trade, regardless of what you think the outcome of the trade will be.

Even with a system that is right 90% of the time, you could end up broke if you do not apply a sound money management technique.

MM also helps us in the winning side of every trade, when applying MM techniques we could benefit from the geometric growth of our trading account. As your account grows, you will trade larger amounts according to the MM technique applied.

FACT - If you do not have a system that is right 100% of the time you should us Money Management (meaning you should use it because such a system does not exist), regardless of how big or small your trading account is. We will never know the outcome of the next trade, and this one trade could be the last one if you do not apply MM. using MM is not an option, it is a must if you want to achieve your trading goals. You need to do whatever you need to do to be able to trade the next day, week, or year.

If you want to be in this business for the long haul, apply proper trading sizing techniques.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

How To Be Successful Forex Trader - Looking for Excitement

 Some other traders are attracted to the Forex market or any other financial market because of the excitement that is to be and be named a trader. And to tell you the truth, it is very exciting. But if this is the main reason you were attracted to the Forex market, or more precisely, this is the reason you are still trading or interested in trading the Forex market, sooner or later you will discover the most expensive adventure you have ever known.

At first, it is all excitement, but as the time goes by, and traders get more involved in the trading process, they realize it is not as easy they thought it would be. All the excitement calms down, and it becomes an obsession. At this phase, only the 5% of all traders, the ones that are consistent profitable, still think it is exciting.

Believe me, there is nothing less exciting than losing money month after month. This happens to around 90% of all traders.

I am aware most of us think trading is exciting, and there is nothing wrong with that, as long as it is not the main reason you are still trading or intend to trade.

There are many other exciting adventures that are way cheaper than trading. Analyze it, because trading, if treated this way, could be a very expensive adventure.

FACT - Yes, trading is exciting, but this should not be the main reason you are trading or intend to trade. Do some thinking on it, otherwise, you will find out the hard way as many have done.

Success in Forex = Learning + Practicing + Update Knowledge

How To Be Successful Forex Trader-Looking For Easy Money

Unfortunately, most people are attracted to the Forex market for this reason.

All because of the publicity of:

• Some brokers showing or rather trying to show how easy is to trade and make money almost instantly in the Forex market
• Signals providers offering the best signals that will make you rich instantly and reach the financial freedom every trader is looking for by showing you the secrets of the big dogs.

Is it easy to trade?

Yes, it is true, everyone can do it, putting on a trade is only one click away.

Is it easy to make money?

Yes, I will have to agree with this one again, it is easy to make money. No knowledge of even what a constitutes a currency is required to make a winning trade. What they don't tell you though, is that it is even easier to lose a trade (because of the spread).

What is important here is that you cannot earn a living trading that way. In order to make a living trading the Forex market, you need to be consistent, and believe me, this is no easy task. To be a consistent profitable trader means that over several periods of time a trader makes money. Just 5% of all traders achieve this goal. Therefore, it is possible, but in no way easy.

Is it possible that a signal provider could make a trader rich? I don't think so. There are no certainties in this business; in fact, no one (signal providers) will ever care if you lose money. The only person responsible for losing money following someone else’s advice, will be you. Because you are the one who is actually executing the trades.

There are no short cuts; no one will ever make you rich but yourself. How do we achieve this? Working hard, this is the only way you can succeed as a trader.

Besides, what would you get by following someone else's advice? Nothing, following blindly someone else's advice would not give you the knowledge, the experience and nothing else good at all. Because you do not know the reasons behind any trade, you don't even know if the signals come from a system. You might make some money if the signals are good. But let me ask you another question… Do you intend to rely on one signal provider for the rest of your life? I don't think so.

So at the end, you will lose precious knowledge and experience that you could have gained by trading on your own, and most importantly, you will have lost time.

And what about the big dogs’ secrets?

Again, there are no secrets, the only truthful secret is that there are no secrets, but please keep this between you and us J 

FACT - There is no easy way to become a consistent profitable trader. There are no shortcuts, and the only way to get there is through hard work, self-discipline, patience, understanding the market, experience, taking only calculated risks, and more characteristics that we will learn throughout the course.

How To Be Successful Forex Trader-The Search for the Holy Grail

Many traders spend years and years trying to find the holy grail of trading. That magic indicator or set of indicators that will make them rich easily, known only by a handful of traders.

The Truth is that there is NO Holy Grail

There is no indicator or system that will make you rich easily. The best traders have no holy grail, it isn’t their system what makes them superior traders, they have other characteristics such as self-discipline, patience, they work hard, they take calculated risks, they do trade consistently based on a trading system (it does not need to be THE PERFECT SYSTEM, just a system), they follow it follow it rigorously, they know they will never stop learning so they have their mind open to every possibility, and most importantly, they have accepted the risk, they know deep in their hearts they are risk-takers.

How come there is no Holy Grail?

Because the market changes. The market is never the same, each moment is unique, patterns are just similar. If all patterns are unique then the outcome of each one of them is statistically independent from one to the other. If every pattern is different, then all set of indicators or systems will fail from time to time.

The two most common mistakes traders are likely to make in this subject are:

Most traders try many systems or set of indicators and them drop them out because they failed a few times. They never give them the time required to accurately test the system.

Another common activity is when traders start out with an easy system, when it fails, they add an indicator that could had kept them out of that particular trade. Then it fails again and they add another indicator. They end up with a very complicated system that is hardly tradable. Then they drop out the system and the process starts all over again.

The important thing here is the valuable amount of time lost in these practices. Some of them spend a lifetime trying to find the nonexistent: the Holy Grail of Trading.

FACT - There is no holy grail. It isn’t wise to try to find the perfect system or indicator that will keep you out of losing, because losing is just part of this business, like spending in raw material in any other kind of business. Instead, you can focus in one indicator/system that will keep you in the market when good moves happen. With good money management and a good risk reward ratio, the odds will be in your favor!

What moves the Forex Market?

Currency movements, as in any other market, are driven by two main forces: supply and demand.

Think for instance of the car selling business in a small village. At first there will be just a few car vendors. As the village grows, more and more people will need cars to satisfy their needs, pushing up the demand for cars. At this point the demand for cars is greater than the quantity supplied, pushing prices up. As people realize selling cars is such a great business opportunity, more people will be attracted the car business and will start selling cars. As this happens, more and more cars will be available, pushing up the supply of cars. At some point, the supply will be greater than the demand of cars. If car vendors don't lower their prices, they won’t be able to sell their cars, so they are forced to lower them.

The same goes for currencies, when a currency increases its value, the demand is greater than its supply. When a currency decreases its value, its supply is greater than its demand.

What factors influence the supply and demand of one currency?

The two main factors that influence the movements in one exchange rate are:

1. The capital flows

2. The trade flows

These two components constitute what economics call balance of payments. The main purpose of the balance of payments is to quantify the demand and supply for a currency of one country, over a period of time.

Balance of Payments = Capital Flows + Trade Flows

A negative balance of payments indicates that the capital leaving the country is greater than the capital entering the country (not much demand)

A positive balance of payments means that the capital entering the economy is greater than the capital leaving the economy (increasing demand of the domestic currency)

Theoretically, a balance of payments equal to zero indicates the right value of one currency.

Capital Flows

Capital flows is the net quantity of currency traded (bought or sold) through capital investments.

The capital flow can be divided into: physical flows and portfolio investments.

Physical Flows - They happen when foreign entities sell their local currency and buy foreign currency to make foreign direct investments (for joint ventures, acquisitions, etc.) When the volume of this kind of investment increases, it reflects the good shape and health of the economy where it is invested.

Portfolio investments - These are investments made on global markets, variable and fixed income market investments (Forex, stocks, T-bills, etc.) An example of portfolio investments is when a hedge fund in Japan invests in the US equity markets.

Trade Flows

Trade flows measure the net exports and imports of a given country. These two components (exports and imports) constitute what economists call the current account.

Countries that have a positive current account (exports greater than imports) are more likely to depreciate their currency; this way the consumer abroad will perceive the foreign currency to be cheaper (and can purchase more goods and services). A good example is Japan.

On the other hand, countries that have a negative current account (imports greater than exports) are more likely to appreciate their currency since they need to sell the local currency and buy foreign currency in order to purchase goods and services. United States is an example of a net importer country.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

This theory states that exchange rates are determined by the relative prices of a similar basket of goods in different countries. In other words, the ratio of prices of a basket with similar goods of two countries should be similar to the exchange rate.

If a Personal Computer in Australia costs AU$1,500, and the same PC in United States costs US$1,200. According to the PPP, the exchange rate AUD/USD would be 1.2500 (1,500/1,200).

If the exchange rate was at 1.3000 (or above 1.2500) it states that in the long run it will decrease its value until 1.2500 is reached. On the other hand, if the exchange rate was at 1.0500 (or below 1.2500) the exchange rate in the long run will increase its value until 1.2500 is reached.

This example is just illustrative, in the real world it is not just one good, but a basket of goods.

The major weakness of this theory is that it assumes that there are no costs related to the trade of goods (tariffs, taxes, etc). Another weakness is that it does not consider other factors that might influence the exchange rate (i.e. interest rates etc)

Modern monetary theories include the capital markets to the PPP theory arguing that capital markets have less costs of trading.

Interest Rate Theory

This theory states that interest rates differentials neutralize the increase or decrease of any currency against another currency. Therefore there are no arbitrage opportunities.

For instance if the interest rate of Australia is 6.25% and the interest rate of United States is 3.5%, then the AUD should depreciate against the USD, so that there are no arbitrage opportunities.

There are also other theories that try to explain the value of a currency pair. But as with every theory, they are based on assumptions that may or may not be present in the real world.

The Psychology of Forex Trading(1)

The Psychology of Forex Trading

 

I have been a trader long enough to know a thing or two about how most people think while trading the market. You see, most people experience similar thinking patterns and emotions as they trade the markets, and we can learn many important things from the differences in the way losing traders think and the way winning traders think.
I would be lying to you if I said that success in the Forex markets depends entirely on the system or strategy you use, because it doesn’t, it actually depends mostly on your mindset and on how you think about and react to the markets. However, most Forex websites trying to sell some indicator or robot-based trading system won’t tell you this, because they want you to believe that you can make money in the markets simply by buying their trading product. I prefer to tell people the truth, and the truth is that having an effective and non-confusing trading strategy is very important, but it’s only one piece of the pie. The bigger portion of the pie is managing your trades correctly and managing your emotions correctly, if you do not do these two things you will never make money in the markets over the long-term.
• Why most traders lose money
You have probably heard that most people who attempt Forex trading end up losing money. There’s a good reason for this, and the reason is primarily that most people think about trading in the wrong light. Most people come into the markets with unrealistic expectations, such as thinking they are going to quit their jobs after a month of trading or thinking they are going to turn $1,000 into $100,000 in a few months. These unrealistic expectations work to foster an account-destroying trading mindset in most traders because they feel too much pressure or “need” to make money in the markets. When you begin trading with this “need” or pressure to make money, you enviably end up trading emotionally, which is the fastest way to lose your money.

Forex trading mistakes and traps(5-Trading real money too soon or gambling it)

The urge to jump into the market and start trading real money is often too much for most traders to withstand. However, the truth is that until you have mastered an effective Forex trading strategy like price action trading, you really should not be trading real money. By “mastering” the strategy, I mean you should be consistently successful with it on a demo account for a period of 3 to 6 months or more, prior to going live. However, you don’t want to use demo account trading as a crutch…trading a real account is different due to the real emotions involved, so just be sure you switch to real-money trading after you have achieved success on demo…don’t be afraid of trading real money, because eventually you will need to make the switch to real money trading.
Also, be sure you are not just gambling your money away. Doing the things we discussed above; over-trading, over-leveraging, not having a trading plan, etc, these are all things that gambling traders do. Traders who don’t gamble in the markets are calm and calculating…they have a trading plan, a trading journal, and they know exactly what their trading edge is and when to trade it.

Caution: Forex trading is not a ‘get-rich-quick’ scheme

A professional Forex trader is someone who uses price movement in the Foreign exchange currency market to make profit. The aim of any Forex trader is to win as many trades as possible and also to maximize those winning trades. A professional Forex chart technician uses price charts to analyze and trade the market. By trading with an EDGE in the market, professional traders can put the odds in their favor to successfully trade price movement from point A to point B.

Caution: Forex trading is not a ‘get-rich-quick’ scheme and it is more difficult to make money in Forex than what most popular Forex system-selling websites would have you believe. To trade profitably we must not only have winning trades, but we must also cut our losing trades short so that our winners out-pace our losers. You see, losing is an enviable part of trading the Forex markets, and you must learn to lose properly by taking small losses relative to your winners. This means you must A L W A Y S trade with a stop loss on E V E R Y trade you take and make sure the dollar amount you have at risk is an amount you are 100% comfortable with losing.
Professional Forex price-chart traders have a winning edge which is developed via Technical Analysis (more on this in Part 4). There are also Fundamental Analysis traders and traders who use a combination of both analysis techniques; we will discuss all of these later.
A professional Forex trader understands that reading a price chart is both art and skill, and as such, they do not try to mechanize or automate the process of trading as each moment in the market is unique, so it takes a flexible and dynamic trading strategy to trade the markets with a high-probability edge.

Advantages of Trading the Forex Market:

• Forex is the largest market in the world, with daily volumes exceeding $3 trillion per day. This means dense liquidity which makes it easy to get in and out of positions.
• Trade whenever you want: There is no opening bell in the Forex market. You can enter or exit a trade whenever you want from Sunday around 5pm EST to Friday around 4pm EST.
• Ease of access: You can fund your trading account with as little as $250 at many retail brokers and begin trading the same day in some cases. Straight through order execution allows you to trade at the click of a mouse.
• Fewer currency pairs to focus on, instead of getting lost trying to analyze thousands of stocks
• Freedom to trade anywhere in the world with the only requirements being a laptop and internet connection.
• Commission-free trading with many retail market-makers and overall lower transaction costs than stocks and commodities.
• Volatility allows traders to profit in any market condition and provides for high-probability weekly trading opportunities. Also, there is no structural market bias like the long bias of the stock market, so traders have equal opportunity to profit in rising or falling markets.
While the forex market is clearly a great market to trade, I would note to all beginners that trading carries both the potential for reward and risk. Many people come into the markets thinking only about the reward and ignoring the risks involved, this is the fastest way to lose all of your trading account money. If you want to get started trading the Fx market on the right track, it’s critical that you are aware of and accept the fact that you could lose on any given trade you take.

Advantages of being a Forex trader

Being a Forex trader offers the most amazing potential lifestyle of any profession in the world. It’s not easy to get there, but if you are determined and disciplined, you can make it happen. Here’s a quick list of skills you will need to reach your goals in the Forex market:

Ability - to take a loss without becoming emotional

Confidence - to believe in yourself and your trading strategy, and to have no fear

Dedication – to becoming the best Forex trader you can be

Discipline - to remain calm and unemotional in a realm of constant temptation (the market)

Flexibility - to trade changing market conditions successfully

Focus – to stay concentrated on your trading plan and to not stray off course

Logic – to look at the market from an objective and straight forward perspective

Organization – to forge and reinforce positive trading habits

Patience – to wait for only the highest-probability trading strategies according to your plan

Realism – to not think you are going to get rich quick and understand the reality of the market and trading

Savvy – to take advantage of your trading edge when it arises and be aware of what is happening in the market at all times

Self-control – to not over-trade and over-leverage your trading account

As traders, we can take advantage of the high leverage and volatility of the Forex market by learning and mastering and effective Forex trading strategy, building an effective trading plan around that strategy, and following it with ice-cold discipline. Money management is key here; leverage is a double-edged sword and can make you a lot of money fast or lose you a lot of money fast. The key to money management in Forex trading is to always know the exact dollar amount you have at risk before entering a trade and be TOTALLY OK with losing that amount of money, because any one trade could be a loser. More on money management later in the course.

The Basics of How Money is Made Trading Forex

Trading currency in the Forex market centers around the basic concepts of buying and selling.

Let's take the idea of buying first. What if you bought something (it could literally be almost anything...a house, a piece of jewelry or a stock) and it went up in value. If you sold it at that point, you would have made a profit...the difference between what you paid originally and the greater value that the item is worth now.

Currency trading is the same way...

Let's say you want to buy the AUDUSD currency pair. If the AUD goes up in value relative to the USD and then you sell it, you will have made a profit. A trader in this example would be buying the AUD and selling the USD at the same time.

For example if the AUDUSD pair was bought at 1.0615 and the pair moved up to 1.0700 at the time that the trade was closed/exited, the profit on the trade would have been 85 pips. (See the chart below…)

Had the pair moved down to 1.0600 before the trade was closed, the loss on the trade would have been 40 pips.

Also, it makes no difference which currency pair you are trading. If the price of the currency you are buying goes up from the time you bought it, you will have made a profit.

Here is another example using the AUD. In this case we still want to buy the AUD but let’s do this with the EURAUD currency pair. In this instance we would sell the pair. We would be selling the EUR and buying the AUD simultaneously. Should the AUD go up relative to the EUR we would profit as we bought the AUD.

In this example if we sold the EURAUD pair at 1.2320 and the price moved down to 1.2250 when we closed the position, we would have made a profit of 70 pips. Had the pair moved up instead and we closed out the position at 1.2360 we would have had a loss of 40 pips on the trade.

Remember, we are always buying or selling the currency on the left side of the pair. If we buy the currency on the left side, which is called the base currency, we are selling the one on the right side which is called the cross or counter currency. The opposite would be true if we were selling the currency on the left side.

Now let's take a look at how a trader can make a profit by selling a currency pair. This concept is a little trickier to understand than buying. It is based on the idea of selling something that you borrowed as opposed to selling something that you own.

In the case of currency trading, when taking a sell position you would borrow the currency in the pair that you were selling from your broker (this all takes place seamlessly within the trading station when the trade is executed) and if the price went down, you would then sell it back to the broker at the lower price. The difference between the price at which you borrowed it (the higher price) and the price at which you sold it back to them (the lower price) would be your profit.

For example, let’s say a trader believes that the USD will go down relative to the JPY. In this case the trader would want to sell the USDJPY pair. They would be selling the USD and buying the JPY at the same time. The trader would be borrowing the USD from their broker when they execute the trade. If the trade moved in their favor the JPY would increase in value and the USD would decrease. At the point where they closed out the trade, their profits from the JPY increasing in value would be used to pay back the broker for the borrowed USD at the now lower price. After paying back the broker, the remainder would be their profit on the trade.

For example, let’s say the trader shorted the USDJPY pair at 76.28. If the pair did in fact move down and the trader closed/exited the position at 75.81, the profit on the trade would be 47 pips.

On the other hand, if the pair was shorted at 76.28 and the pair did not move down but rather it moved up to 76.50 when the position was closed, there would be a loss on the trade of 22 pips.

In a nutshell, this how you can make a profit from selling something that you do not own.

In wrapping up, if you buy a currency pair and it moves up, that trade would show a profit. If you sell a currency pair and it moves down, that trade would show a profit.