Showing posts with label Candlestick chart. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Candlestick chart. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

How To Be Successful Forex Trader-The Search for the Holy Grail

Many traders spend years and years trying to find the holy grail of trading. That magic indicator or set of indicators that will make them rich easily, known only by a handful of traders.
The Truth is that there is NO Holy Grail
There is no indicator or system that will make you rich easily. The best traders have no holy grail, it isn’t their system what makes them superior traders, they have other characteristics such as self-discipline, patience, they work hard, they take calculated risks, they do trade consistently based on a trading system (it does not need to be THE PERFECT SYSTEM, just a system), they follow it follow it rigorously, they know they will never stop learning so they have their mind open to every possibility, and most importantly, they have accepted the risk, they know deep in their hearts they are risk-takers.

How come there is no Holy Grail?
Because the market changes. The market is never the same, each moment is unique, patterns are just similar. If all patterns are unique then the outcome of each one of them is statistically independent from one to the other. If every pattern is different, then all set of indicators or systems will fail from time to time.
The two most common mistakes traders are likely to make in this subject are:
Most traders try many systems or set of indicators and them drop them out because they failed a few times. They never give them the time required to accurately test the system.
Another common activity is when traders start out with an easy system, when it fails, they add an indicator that could had kept them out of that particular trade. Then it fails again and they add another indicator. They end up with a very complicated system that is hardly tradable. Then they drop out the system and the process starts all over again.
The important thing here is the valuable amount of time lost in these practices. Some of them spend a lifetime trying to find the nonexistent: the Holy Grail of Trading.

FACT - There is no holy grail. It isn’t wise to try to find the perfect system or indicator that will keep you out of losing, because losing is just part of this business, like spending in raw material in any other kind of business. Instead, you can focus in one indicator/system that will keep you in the market when good moves happen. With good money management and a good risk reward ratio, the odds will be in your favor!

Friday, January 3, 2014

Technical Analysis, Major Candlestick Reversal Patterns 2

5- Engulfing Reversal Pattern
In the image below, engulfing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.
Engulfing Pattern 
Formation

Engulfing patterns consist of two candlesticks. The first one is usually a small candle, and must be in direction of the prevailing trend (in an uptrend the short candlestick must be white and in a downtrend the candlestick must be black) while the second candlestick must be against the prevailing trend and is usually a long candlestick. Candles should have little or no shadows at all. The body of the second candlestick must cover or embrace the body of the first candle (shadows are not taken into consideration).

Psychology behind the Shooting Star and Examples
In a downtrend or downside movement where bulls have control over the markets, a bullish engulfing pattern indicates that bulls finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices (and intend to sell back at higher prices) and pushed the market up above the open price. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.
In an uptrend or upside movement where bulls have control over prices, a bearish engulfing pattern indicates that bears finally took total control over the market; they were attracted by the higher prices and pushed the market down below the open price. This might signal a short-term reversal pattern as clearly bears or sellers have taken control of the market. .
Bullish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go long!
Bearish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go short!

Bullish Engulfing in Action
Bullish Engulfing in Action


In the 5 min EURJPY chart a bullish engulfing pattern appears at the bottom of the range signaling a possible change in direction. The market goes up because of the bullish sentiment at lower prices. Bears notice bulls are really confident at those levels.
Bearish Engulfing in Action
Bearish Engulfing Pattern in Action


In the AUDUSD 5 min chart, an engulfing pattern appears at the top of the range signaling a “change in direction”. Remember that reversal pattern not always forecast trend reversals, correction or consolidation periods are always a possibility.

6- Piercing Reversal Patterns
In the image below, piercing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.
Piercing Pattern


* The bearish piercing pattern is also called “Dark Cloud Cover”. For the sake of simplicity, in this course we will always refer to this pattern as bearish piercing pattern.
Formation
Piercing patterns, as engulfing patterns, are also made from two candlesticks. Both candlesticks should have long bodies and small or no shadows. The first candlestick must be in direction of the prevailing trend and the second against it. The further the second candle goes against the trend the more significant the pattern is. Candlesticks could have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Piercing Patterns and Examples
In a downtrend or downside movement where buyers have control over the markets, a bullish piercing pattern indicates that buyers finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices and pushed the market up near the highs of the day. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.
A bearish piercing pattern, or most commonly called dark cloud cover indicates that bears liked to sell on those higher prices, gaining temporary control. If the move is strong enough, bulls will close their longs making the price sell off. The close price of the second candle must be below the midpoint of the first candle body.
Bullish Piercing Patterns are signals to go long!
Bearish Piercing Patterns are signals to go short!
Bullish Piercing in Action
Bullish Engulfing Pattern


Hey, forget about the red box! We will get to that a few lines below. The bullish piercing pattern at the yellow box illustrates what the balance of supply and demand in this scenario: bears make a final push down, but bulls take command of the market pushing them up again.

What’s the red box?
It was the result of the Interest rate announcement from Canada. Consensus was no change but the Bank of Canada decided to cut .25%, it’s a 100 pip 5 min candlestick.
Bearish Piercing in Action
Bearish Piercing in Action


This is a valid bearish piercing pattern at the GBPUSD 30 min chart. Small shadows, first candle in direction of the movement and second candles against it. This pattern marks the end of the retracement. 

7- Morning Star & Evening Star
In the image below, morning and evening stars are represented by the last three candlesticks of each illustration.
Evening and Morning Star



Formation
Morning and evening stars are made from three candlesticks. The first candlestick is always in the direction of the trend or current direction, the second candlestick could be a black or white one while the third must be against the prevailing trend or direction. Usually candlesticks in these formations have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Evening and Morning Stars and Examples
The morning star pattern begins with a long bearish candlestick or big sell off (in direction of the prevailing trend). At the second candle, the bears are not sure anymore about the downtrend continuing its path. At this point, the buyers feel a little stronger than before. Buyers take total control of prices on the next candle making the market rally. The closer the candlestick closes from the first candlestick open price, the stronger the pattern.
Evening stars begin with a long white candlestick in direction of the prevailing trend. At this point, the bulls are still confident about the uptrend. At the next candle though, the bears start selling attracted by the higher prices. This candle represents a short period of indecision or a fierce battle between bulls and bears. On the third candlestick, bears take total control of the situation making the price sell off. The larger the third candle is, the stronger the reversal.
Morning Stars are long signals.
Evening Stars are short signals.
Morning Star in Action
Morning Star


In this USDCHF 1 min chart we see two morning stars patters that finally capped the downside movements. The trend wasn’t reversed, at least there some support is found around those levels.
Evening Star in Action
Evening Star in Action


GBPJPY 1 min chart, the evening star at the beginning of the chart makes the market head down to reach lower levels. Bearish pressure is self evident: bears start selling and bulls take profits (sell back), this makes the market drop like a rock.

8- Harami Reversal Patterns
In the image below, Harami patters are represented by the last two candlesticks of each illustration.
Harami Pattern



Formation
Both, bearish and bullish harami are made from two candlesticks. The first one is always a large candlestick in direction of the trend or current move and the second one against the direction of the trend or current move. Candlesticks could have small or no shadow at all. The body of the second candlestick must be inside the body of the first one.
Although the size of the body of the second candlestick is smaller than the size of the first one, it should be “larger” than usual.

Psychology behind Bearish and Bullish Harami and Examples
In the bullish harami, bulls stop bear dominance and take temporary control over the market. The first candlestick of the bullish harami is the final push of bears while the second one means bears are feeling more confident about further upside movements.
In the bearish harami, bears step in after a high volume bull push. Prices are high enough to start opening their short positions. The closer the second candlestick closes to the open of the first one, the stronger the short sentiment.
Bullish Harami are long signals
Bearish Harami are short signals
Bullish Harami in Action
Bearish Harami in Action


As we have mentioned before, reversal patterns not only signal trend reversals, they also signal possible retracements and consolidation periods. In this case, the harami pattern signals a correction period. Now, take in consideration this is a weekly chart, from the top of the pattern to the bottom of the retracement there are around 500 pips.

Bearish Harami in Action
Bearish Harami in Action


In the USDCHF 4H chart above, a bearish harami pattern appears after the retracement. It could signal the end of the retracement; traders could resume their short positions.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Technical Analysis - Introduction to Candlesticks

Japanese candlesticks give us a better understanding of value, or more precisely, the interpretation of value given to any instrument by investors and traders than any other type of chart. They also help us have a better understanding of the psychology of traders and investors driven by fear, greed and hope, since all these characteristics are represented in price movements.
Before going through candlesticks patterns and how to trade based on them, we should first understand what different candlesticks represent by themselves.


Long candlesticks 


Long candlesticks describe strong buying/selling pressure. Price had a sharp advance/decline from the open price (traders were aggressive).

When we talk about “long” candlesticks, we are referring to the body of the candlestick.

Long Candlesticks





But, long compared to what?

We know it is long when we compare the action of any candlestick with the length of previous candlesticks. A “long” candlestick must be clearly identified in order to be a valid pattern, should there be any doubt, it is probable that the candlestick is not long “enough”.


Short candlesticks 


Short candlesticks could represent two things: not much volume or periods of indecision (demand meets supply.)

Short Candlesticks




Short candlesticks are also compared to previous action to assess the validity of the candlestick.


Marubozu 


Marubozu candlesticks are strong candles. They have no shadows, this means that the open price equals the low/high of the period and the closing price equals the high/low of the period.

Marubozu Candlestick




The interpretation of this kind of candlesticks varies depending on where it was formed. If a bullish marubozu appears in a downtrend, it could signal a short-term reversal (bulls took control of the situation from the first minute to the last.) If a bullish marubozu appears at the top the range, it could signal a final push up, it all depends on preceding candlesticks. The same is true for a bearish marubozu.

If the marubozu breaks through an important support or resistance level, the market is likely to continue on the way of the “break through”.


Doji candlesticks 


Doji candlesticks represent periods of indecision, or fierce battle between bulls and bears.

Doji Candlesticks

Doji candlesticks are formed when the open price and the close price are virtually the same (or very close). Ideally, the open and close prices should be equal, but remember, the important thing to capture here is the essence of the candlestick.
For instance, when the close and open price is similar, it shows us that as the price went up, sellers took control of the situation, and when prices went down, the buyers the control of prices.
Doji candlesticks alone are considered neutral, but should be a warning. If for instance, in a downtrend a doji candlestick is preceded by a long bull candlestick, then it could mean a possible reversal.

Spinning tops/bottoms
Spinning tops and bottoms have small bodies and long shadows usually larger than its body.
Spinning top and bottom




Spinning tops/bottoms, as dojis, represent periods of indecision and intensive action between bulls and bears, with no clear domination.

Spinning tops/bottoms are considered neutral until a long bull/bear candlestick appears after them.


Long-legged doji

Long upper and lower shadows, open and close prices are virtually the same.

These candlesticks also represent intensive action between bulls and bears, and no one was being able to take control over prices.

Dragonfly and Gravestone doji´s are Long-legged doji´s.


Dragonfly doji

Dragonfly Doji




Long lower shadow with open and closing prices near the top of the range. Bears took control first, but then bulls were attracted by cheaper prices then taking control of prices.

This candlestick is more bullish than bearish since the bears were not able to drive prices lower because bulls took control over prices, pushing them up.


Gravestone doji

Gravestone Doji


Long upper shadow with open and closing prices near the bottom of the range. Bulls took control of prices at the beginning, but then bears resurfaced gaining control taking the price near the low (and open) of the range.

This candlestick is slightly more bearish than bullish since bulls tried to take control over prices driving them higher first, but then the bears took control over them driving them back down.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Technical Analysis - Types of Forex Charts

Charts are prices, plotted over one specific timeframe. Vertical axes represent the price of one given instrument, while the horizontal axis represents the time horizon.
The most common types of charts used by technical analysts are:
  • Line chart
  • Bar chart
  • Candlestick chart

Line Chart
The line chart consists of dots connected by a line. These dots usually record the closing prices of currencies on one determined timeframe. 

Line Chart



The line charts are commonly used by traders whose main focus is to study only closing prices.

Bar Chart
The bar chart gives us more information regarding price at any given moment. It records the high, low, open and close price of one security during any given period.
Bar Chart




The high and the low are represented by the top (high) and the bottom (low) of the vertical line. The open price is represented by the short horizontal line on the left, while the close price is represented by the short horizontal line on the right

Bar Chart




On the chart above, every bar represents 30 minutes of price action. The top and bottom of each bar represent the highest and the lowest price of every period (30 minutes). The horizontal lines represent the open and the close of each 30 minutes bar

Candlestick Charts
Candlestick charts are very similar to the bar charts, they also record the open, close, high and low price of every period. The only difference is that candlesticks have a body on each bar.
Candlestick




Every “white” (or hollow) candlestick indicates that the price closed higher than where it opened. Thus the open price is the bottom of the body (not the whole candlestick), and the close price is the top of the body. In contrast, every black candlestick indicates that the price closed lower than where it opened. Thus the open price is the top of the body and the close price is at the bottom of the body.
The wicks above and below the body of the candlestick are called “shadows” or “wicks”, they represent the highest (upper wick) and the lowest (lower wick) price printed for each period. 

Candlestick Chart




Candlestick charting has become very popular for traders. The main reason for this is because it is easier to read and study the relationship of prices (and investor’s psychology) on this type of charting.
Later in our courses we will see more about candlesticks, we will learn what each one of them represent as well as other patterns that could help us make a better trading decision. We will get to that!