Technical Analysis, technical indicators,Stochastics (STC)

Developed by George Lane in the 50´s. Stochastics compare the last closing price relative to its trading range over the chosen periods. The values of the stochastic oscillator range between 0 and 1, or more precisely between 0% and 100%.

When the reading of the oscillator is near zero, it indicates that the last period closing price closed near the bottom of the n-period range. A reading close to 1 indicates that the last period closing price closed near the top of the n-period range.

A 9 period stochastic will measure the last close relative to the last 9 periods low and high range.

There are three types of stochastics: fast, slow and full stochastics. The slow stochastic is simply a smoother (less whipsaws but less sensitive to price fluctuations) version of the fast stochastic. The full stochastic adds an additional parameter which makes it even smother than the slow stochastic.

Stochastic Usage

Usage No 1 - Overbought/oversold conditions. Stochastics are probably the most used indicator for these purposes. A buy signal is given when the readings are below 20% and rises above this level (buy signal – oversold condition). A sell signal occurs when the reading is above 80% and falls back down below that level (sell signal - overbought condition). When the market is trending, it is advised to take only those signals that are in direction of the trend.

[Chart 19]

As we already mentioned, stochastics are probably the indicator that gives overbought and oversold signals more accurately. The signal is triggered when the indicator returns to the neutral territory from an oversold or overbought condition.

Usage No 2 - Divergence trading. As other indicators, stochastics also give divergence signals.

[Chart 20]

This is the same chart we used for the RSI divergence. As you can see the RSI works better and signals a clearer divergence. Either way, the divergence is present.

Technical Analysis, Important Chart Patterns Considerations

Please take into consideration the following:

1. Most technical chart patterns require confirmation in order to complete the pattern.

2. Chart patterns are present in all timeframes, from the monthly chart to the minute chart. But remember, the greater the time frame the more significant the pattern is. For instance, a rectangle can be formed in the 5-minute chart and at the same time a rectangle can also be formed in the 1-hour chart, in this case, the latter rectangle is more significant. But it doesn't mean that a pattern in a 5 minute chart is not significant, it means that if there are two patterns on different timeframes, the pattern with the longer time frame is more significant. All patterns represent the same supply and demand interaction in different time frames.

3. It is advised to use other techniques in combination with chart patterns, such as candlestick patterns, technical indicators, etc. this way we will increase the significance of every signal.

Technical Analysis, Major Candlestick Reversal Patterns 2

5- Engulfing Reversal Pattern

In the image below, engulfing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.

 
Formation

Engulfing patterns consist of two candlesticks. The first one is usually a small candle, and must be in direction of the prevailing trend (in an uptrend the short candlestick must be white and in a downtrend the candlestick must be black) while the second candlestick must be against the prevailing trend and is usually a long candlestick. Candles should have little or no shadows at all. The body of the second candlestick must cover or embrace the body of the first candle (shadows are not taken into consideration).

Psychology behind the Shooting Star and Examples

In a downtrend or downside movement where bulls have control over the markets, a bullish engulfing pattern indicates that bulls finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices (and intend to sell back at higher prices) and pushed the market up above the open price. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.

In an uptrend or upside movement where bulls have control over prices, a bearish engulfing pattern indicates that bears finally took total control over the market; they were attracted by the higher prices and pushed the market down below the open price. This might signal a short-term reversal pattern as clearly bears or sellers have taken control of the market. .

Bullish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go long!

Bearish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go short!

Bullish Engulfing in Action

In the 5 min EURJPY chart a bullish engulfing pattern appears at the bottom of the range signaling a possible change in direction. The market goes up because of the bullish sentiment at lower prices. Bears notice bulls are really confident at those levels.

Bearish Engulfing in Action

In the AUDUSD 5 min chart, an engulfing pattern appears at the top of the range signaling a “change in direction”. Remember that reversal pattern not always forecast trend reversals, correction or consolidation periods are always a possibility.

6- Piercing Reversal Patterns

In the image below, piercing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.

* The bearish piercing pattern is also called “Dark Cloud Cover”. For the sake of simplicity, in this course we will always refer to this pattern as bearish piercing pattern.

Formation

Piercing patterns, as engulfing patterns, are also made from two candlesticks. Both candlesticks should have long bodies and small or no shadows. The first candlestick must be in direction of the prevailing trend and the second against it. The further the second candle goes against the trend the more significant the pattern is. Candlesticks could have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Piercing Patterns and Examples

In a downtrend or downside movement where buyers have control over the markets, a bullish piercing pattern indicates that buyers finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices and pushed the market up near the highs of the day. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.

A bearish piercing pattern, or most commonly called dark cloud cover indicates that bears liked to sell on those higher prices, gaining temporary control. If the move is strong enough, bulls will close their longs making the price sell off. The close price of the second candle must be below the midpoint of the first candle body.

Bullish Piercing Patterns are signals to go long!

Bearish Piercing Patterns are signals to go short!

Bullish Piercing in Action

Hey, forget about the red box! We will get to that a few lines below. The bullish piercing pattern at the yellow box illustrates what the balance of supply and demand in this scenario: bears make a final push down, but bulls take command of the market pushing them up again.

What’s the red box?

It was the result of the Interest rate announcement from Canada. Consensus was no change but the Bank of Canada decided to cut .25%, it’s a 100 pip 5 min candlestick.

Bearish Piercing in Action

This is a valid bearish piercing pattern at the GBPUSD 30 min chart. Small shadows, first candle in direction of the movement and second candles against it. This pattern marks the end of the retracement. 

7- Morning Star & Evening Star

In the image below, morning and evening stars are represented by the last three candlesticks of each illustration.

Formation

Morning and evening stars are made from three candlesticks. The first candlestick is always in the direction of the trend or current direction, the second candlestick could be a black or white one while the third must be against the prevailing trend or direction. Usually candlesticks in these formations have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Evening and Morning Stars and Examples

The morning star pattern begins with a long bearish candlestick or big sell off (in direction of the prevailing trend). At the second candle, the bears are not sure anymore about the downtrend continuing its path. At this point, the buyers feel a little stronger than before. Buyers take total control of prices on the next candle making the market rally. The closer the candlestick closes from the first candlestick open price, the stronger the pattern.

Evening stars begin with a long white candlestick in direction of the prevailing trend. At this point, the bulls are still confident about the uptrend. At the next candle though, the bears start selling attracted by the higher prices. This candle represents a short period of indecision or a fierce battle between bulls and bears. On the third candlestick, bears take total control of the situation making the price sell off. The larger the third candle is, the stronger the reversal.

Morning Stars are long signals.

Evening Stars are short signals.

Morning Star in Action

In this USDCHF 1 min chart we see two morning stars patters that finally capped the downside movements. The trend wasn’t reversed, at least there some support is found around those levels.

Evening Star in Action

GBPJPY 1 min chart, the evening star at the beginning of the chart makes the market head down to reach lower levels. Bearish pressure is self evident: bears start selling and bulls take profits (sell back), this makes the market drop like a rock.

8- Harami Reversal Patterns

In the image below, Harami patters are represented by the last two candlesticks of each illustration.

Formation

Both, bearish and bullish harami are made from two candlesticks. The first one is always a large candlestick in direction of the trend or current move and the second one against the direction of the trend or current move. Candlesticks could have small or no shadow at all. The body of the second candlestick must be inside the body of the first one.

Although the size of the body of the second candlestick is smaller than the size of the first one, it should be “larger” than usual.

Psychology behind Bearish and Bullish Harami and Examples

In the bullish harami, bulls stop bear dominance and take temporary control over the market. The first candlestick of the bullish harami is the final push of bears while the second one means bears are feeling more confident about further upside movements.

In the bearish harami, bears step in after a high volume bull push. Prices are high enough to start opening their short positions. The closer the second candlestick closes to the open of the first one, the stronger the short sentiment.

Bullish Harami are long signals

Bearish Harami are short signals

Bullish Harami in Action

As we have mentioned before, reversal patterns not only signal trend reversals, they also signal possible retracements and consolidation periods. In this case, the harami pattern signals a correction period. Now, take in consideration this is a weekly chart, from the top of the pattern to the bottom of the retracement there are around 500 pips.

Bearish Harami in Action

In the USDCHF 4H chart above, a bearish harami pattern appears after the retracement. It could signal the end of the retracement; traders could resume their short positions.

Technical Analysis - Types of Forex Charts

Charts are prices, plotted over one specific timeframe. Vertical axes represent the price of one given instrument, while the horizontal axis represents the time horizon.

The most common types of charts used by technical analysts are:

• Line chart
• Bar chart
• Candlestick chart

Line Chart

The line chart consists of dots connected by a line. These dots usually record the closing prices of currencies on one determined timeframe. 

The line charts are commonly used by traders whose main focus is to study only closing prices.

Bar Chart

The bar chart gives us more information regarding price at any given moment. It records the high, low, open and close price of one security during any given period.

The high and the low are represented by the top (high) and the bottom (low) of the vertical line. The open price is represented by the short horizontal line on the left, while the close price is represented by the short horizontal line on the right

On the chart above, every bar represents 30 minutes of price action. The top and bottom of each bar represent the highest and the lowest price of every period (30 minutes). The horizontal lines represent the open and the close of each 30 minutes bar

Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts are very similar to the bar charts, they also record the open, close, high and low price of every period. The only difference is that candlesticks have a body on each bar.

Every “white” (or hollow) candlestick indicates that the price closed higher than where it opened. Thus the open price is the bottom of the body (not the whole candlestick), and the close price is the top of the body. In contrast, every black candlestick indicates that the price closed lower than where it opened. Thus the open price is the top of the body and the close price is at the bottom of the body.

The wicks above and below the body of the candlestick are called “shadows” or “wicks”, they represent the highest (upper wick) and the lowest (lower wick) price printed for each period. 

Candlestick charting has become very popular for traders. The main reason for this is because it is easier to read and study the relationship of prices (and investor’s psychology) on this type of charting.

Later in our courses we will see more about candlesticks, we will learn what each one of them represent as well as other patterns that could help us make a better trading decision. We will get to that!

Technical Analysis

As we have already stated in the previous lesson, technical analysis tries to determine the future performance of any financial instrument based in the study of historic prices (price behavior).

By studying the price behavior and technical analysis we are actually analyzing the behavior of all traders involved in a certain market. Traders and investors are behind every price movement; after all, they all drove the price to a certain level. The price moves based on traders’ expectations; on what they think the future price of any given instrument should be.

Most of the time traders are driven by their emotions (fear, greed, hope, etc.) and these emotions are visible on the charts as repetitive price patterns. The outcome of these specific patterns is what technical analysis tries to forecast.

Technical analysis is based on the Dow Theory which has three main principles:

Price Discounts Everything - All information available is already reflected in price, it reflects the knowledge of everyone involved, including fundamentalists.

Price Behavior is not Random - Although there are periods of trendless or random behavior, the price tends to trend. Our job as technicians is to identify those periods where the price is trending and profit from them.

The “What” (or “Where”) Question is more Important than “Why” - The “What question” refers to where is price and what is its historical behavior. Those questions are to be answered by technical analysts. Why is price at certain level? This one is of concern of fundamental analysts; they look for reasons behind certain price movements.

And here we go with Technical Analysis...

This will be  in the following way:

   

1-Types of Charts - We will review the most common types of charts used by technical analysts.

2-Support and Resistance - We will review one of the most important concepts of trading; we will see what makes support and resistance and how to identify them.

3-Support and Resistance FAQ’s – Here you will find common questions about support and resistance zones. 

4-Trends and Range Bound Conditions - How to identify a trend and a range market. We will also see how to measure its intensity through trendlines.

5-Candlesticks Intro - We will review the most popular type of charting used by technical analysts.

How to Make a Forex Trading Plan (2)

Trading plans contain written guidelines of what a trader will do and look for as well as images of trade setups
Your trading plan should contain a written description of what you will do in the markets. This includes things like what your trading edge is, how you trade it, when you trade it, what time frames you trade (I prefer daily Forex chart trading), your strategy for risk management and profit taking, and your overall goals as a trader. You should also include images of your trading edge setups, so that you are constantly reminded of what an “ideal” setup looks like. Eventually, after you follow your written guidelines and “ideal” trade setup images long enough, you will burn them into your brain to the point of knowing exactly what you are looking for in the market, which will work to build your confidence as a trader.
• Trades planned in advance and ‘anticipated’ work best
One of the main reasons to create a Forex trading plan is because pre-planning your trades and pre-determining what you are looking for in the markets is the best way to profit over the long-run. You will never be more objective and calm then when you are NOT in the market, so if you can plan out all your trades when you are not in the markets, you will be totally uninfluenced by market variables when you are in a trade, and this will work to protect you from becoming an emotional Forex trader.
• Be patient and wait for the conditions of a plan to unfold – don’t force the issue
Patience is perhaps the most important virtue that a Forex trader can possess. When you are a patient trader it means you know what you are looking for in the markets and you wait for your trading edge to appear before you execute a trade. Trading in this manner eliminates many losing trades that are the result of trading emotionally…or without patience. A large part of trading, and perhaps the largest part, is simply waiting for an “ideal” price action setup or other trade setup to form in the market. Traders who don’t wait for an ideal setup to form, end up losing their money quickly because they negate their trading edge and are simply gambling instead. Make sure you stress the importance of patience in your trading plan, this way you will be reminded every time you read it why being a patient trader is so important to making money in the Forex market.

Forex Trading Strategy(2)

• Trend trading
Trending markets offer us the best opportunity to profit, since the market is clearly moving in one general direction; we can use this information to our advantage by looking to enter the market in the direction of the trend.
An uptrend is marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows, and a downtrend is marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Note that trends do end, as we can see in the daily EURUSD chart below, the downtrend has come to an end recently after the pattern of lower highs and lower lows was broken…
I like to trade with the near-term daily trend by looking for high-probability price action strategies forming within the structure of the market trend. What I mean by this is essentially looking for price action setups forming near support as a market rotates lower in an uptrend and near resistance as a market rotates higher in a downtrend. Markets ebb and flow, and if you can learn to take advantage of trending markets, you will have a very good shot at becoming a profitable Forex trader:

• Counter-trend trading
Since trends do end, we can also take advantage of this information. However, counter-trend trading is inherently riskier and more difficult than trading with the trend, so it should only be attempted after you have fully mastered trading with the trend. Some of the things to look for in a good counter-trend signal is a price action pattern or setup forming at a very obvious and ‘key’ support or resistance level on the daily chart, see here:


• Range-bound market trading
When a market is in a trading range it means that it is consolidating between a level of support and resistance. We can use the fact that a market is bouncing between support and resistance to our advantage. As the market approaches the support or resistance boundary of the trading range, we have a high-probability entry level, since risk is clearly defined just above or below the resistance or support of the range. When trading price action in trading ranges, you can watch for obvious price action setups forming near the boundaries of the range, see here:


• Forex candlestick charts and patterns
We discussed Forex charts in Part 7, but as they are very important to the way that I trade and teach price action, I wanted to give them a little more time. I have previously written an excellent tutorial on Forex candlestick charts that you can check out here: Forex candlestick charts
It’s important to understand that candlestick patterns have certain terminology all to their self that you should become familiar with before you attempt to master a trading strategy like price action.

Candlestick charts

Candlestick charts
Candlestick charts show the same information as a bar chart but in a graphical format that is more fun to look at. Candlestick charts indicate the high and low of the given time period just as bar charts do, with a vertical line. The top vertical line is called the upper shadow while the bottom vertical line is called the lower shadow; you might also see the upper and lower shadows referred to as “wicks”. The main difference lies in how candlestick charts display the opening and closing price. The large block in the middle of the candlestick indicates the range between the opening and closing price. Traditionally this block is called the “real body”.
Generally if the real body is filled in, or darker in color the currency closed lower than it opened, and if the real body is left unfilled, or usually a lighter color, the currency closed higher than it opened. For example, if the real body is white or another light color, the top of the real body likely indicates the close price and the bottom of the real body indicates the open price. If the real body is black or another dark color, the top of the real body likely indicates the open price and the bottom indicates the close price (I used the word “likely” since you can make the real body whatever color you want). This will all become clear with an illustration:
Now, here’s the same EURUSD daily chart that I showed you in line and bar form, as a candlestick chart. Note that I have made the candles black and white, you can pick whatever colors you want, just make sure they are friendly to your eye but also that they convey bullish and bearishness to you. Bullish candles are the white ones (close higher than open) and bearish candles are the black ones (close lower than open):
Candlestick charts are the most popular of all three major chart forms, and as such, they are the type you will see most often as you trade, and they are also the type I recommend you use when you learn and trade with price action strategies. I use candlestick charts in my Forex trading course, and I recommended all my members use them when posting up charts in the members’ forum, because their visual pleasantness and simplicity make it easier for everyone to learn from.

Forex Charting

Introduction to Forex Charting
This part of the course is going to give you a brief overview of the three primary types of charts that you will run across in your Forex trading journey. The chart type that I use, and that my members use, is candlestick charts, I feel forex candlestick charts do the best job at showing the price dynamics in a market, since their design helps you to visualize the “force”, or lack thereof, that a particular price movement exhibited. So, let’s go over the three main types of charts that you will likely see as you trade the markets:
• Line charts
Line charts are good at giving you a quick view of overall market trend as well as support and resistance levels. They are not really practical to trade off of because you can’t see the individual price bars, but if you want to see the trend of the market in a clear manner, you should check out the line charts of your favorite markets from time to time.
Line charts are made by connecting a line from the high price of one period to the high price of the next, low to low, open to open, or close to close. By far, line charts that show a connection from one closing price to the next are the most useful and the most widely used; this is because the closing price of a market is deemed the most important, since it determines who won the battle between the bulls and the bears for that time period. Let’s look at an example of a daily line chart of the EURUSD:
• Bar charts
A bar chart shows us a price bar for each period of time. So if you are looking at a daily chart you will see a price bar for each day, a 4 hour chart will show you one price bar for each 4 hour period of time…etc. An individual price bar gives us four pieces of information that we can use to help us make our trading decisions: The open, high, low, and close, you will sometimes see bar charts called OHLC charts (open, high, low, close charts), here’s an example of one price bar:
Here’s an example of the same EURUSD chart we used for the line chart example but as a bar chart: