Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analysis. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Time-Frames

There are different periods in which a currency pair could be charted: monthly, weekly, daily, hourly, 30-minute, 5-minute, etc.
Each timeframe has its unique trend; this is the reason why there is no absolute trend for any currency, take the following charts for example.
EURUSD Hourly Chart
Time Frames - Hourly Chart
[Chart 30]
EURUSD Daily Chart
Time Frames - Daily Chart
[Chart 31]
In these charts, a swing trader focusing in the 1H chart could assess: well there is no trend (ranging market) right now for the EURUSD while a long-term trader could assess: the trend for the EURUSD is clearly up. Which trader is wrong? No one, both of them are correct. Both of them have effectively determined the trend in the timeframe they are focusing on.
Of course, the market condition in the 1H chart is most likely to continue for the next couple of days while the market condition in the daily chart is likely to continue for the next month or so.
The same goes when we use indicators. Sometimes the same indicator could be signalling the opposite signals on the same currency pair on different time frames.
Take for instance the following charts:

GBPJPY 15 Minute
GBPJPY 15 minute Chart
[Chart 32]
GBPJPY 4H
GBPJPY 4 Hour Chart
[Chart 33]
On the first chart (15min) the stochastics are in an oversold situation however, at the same time, in the 4H chart the stochastics did give a sell signal (crossing from the overbought territory to the neutral territory). The reason for this simple, remember all indicators go back n-periods to make a calculation, in this particular case, the 7 period stochastics in the 15 min chart went back 8 candlesticks to complete its calculation (1.75 hours). The stochastics in the 4H chart also represent 8 candlesticks but those 21 candles represent around 1.5 days worth of data. The market conditions are completely different during those periods.
Obviously, it is better to trade when many timeframes indicate the same market condition (i.e. both, the 15 min and the 4H chart indicate an oversold condition). When this happens, the probability of success of the given signal increases enormously.
Is important to realize that the longer the timeframe the more impact it will have in the market. For instance, an oversold condition in the 4H chart is more important than an overbought condition in the 15 min chart. More important because the “signaled market condition” will last for a greater time in longer time frames than in the shorter time frames.

Which timeframe should I use?
When trying to decide which timeframe to trade in we must take in consideration two important factors: the time dedicated to your trading and your personality.
How much time a day/week are we going to dedicate to our trading? Obviously if you have a day job and do not have the possibility to monitor your trades, then it would be better to focus on the 4H or 1H chart, and even daily charts can work out. If there is a possibility to monitor your trades then you can use the 30 min charts.
On the other hand, if you are a full time trader, then you have the possibility to trade shorter timeframes such as the 5 or 15 min charts.
However, we must almost consider that when you are a full time trader there is a chance that trading shorter timeframes does not fit your personality. The same goes for traders with a day job, there is a possibility that trading the longer term just will not work. I have a friend who started trading the FX market using the 1min chart. His trading wasn’t going the way he expected so he moved to the 15 min, then to the 30 min and finally to the 1H charts, where he felt most comfortable trading (and of course profits also increased).

So to summarize, you should use the time frames that better fit your personality and time requirements, and the best way to know which one fits you better is by trading as many time frames as possible, then choose the one you felt most comfortable with.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Important Consideration about Technical Indicators

Remember that some indicators work best during trending markets while others generate best results under ranging or trendless conditions.
For this reason it is important to choose different indicators for different market conditions. For instance, we could use one oscillator to forecast tops and bottoms when the market is ranging, but once either the top or bottom is broken, we could use the CCI to take signals based on extreme levels.
To trade based only on one indicator could be risky, we need to adapt our strategy to the different market conditions, and combine preferably indicators of different nature, for example, use oscillators in combination with candlestick reversal patterns to get our trading signals.
The other extreme is not good either, using a lot of indicators could complicate trading decisions and we could end up with a system that is hardly tradable.
For now, get familiar with each indicator and pattern studied in these past three lessons. Try to see which one of them fits you better and what combination of technical tools could help you achieve better results.

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Pivot Points

In a few words, a pivot point (PP) is a level in which the sentiment of traders and investors changes from bull to bear or vice versa.
Why PP works?
They work simply because many traders and investors (including bank and institutional traders) use and trust them. It is known by every trader that the pivot point is an important measure of strength or weakness of any market.
There are several ways to calculate the pivot point. The method we found to have the most accurate results is calculated by taking the average of the high, low and close of a previous period (or session).
Warning – some pretty boring maths ahead. The good news is that almost all charting platforms will automatically calculate this for you and draw the lines on in whatever pretty colour you like. But as this is the ADVANCED course we think you should have a basic idea of how they are calculated.
Pivot point (PP) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
Take for instance the following EUR/USD information from the previous session:
Open: 1.2386
High: 1.2474
Low: 1.2376
Close: 1.2458
The PP would be,
PP = (1.2474 + 1.2376 + 1.2458) / 3 = 1.2436
So, what does this number tell us? It simply tells us that if the market is trading above 1.2439, Bulls are winning the battle pushing the prices higher. In addition, if the market is trading below this 1.2439 the bears are winning the battle pulling prices lower. In both cases this condition is likely to sustain until the next session.
Since the Forex market is a 24hr market (no close or open from day to day) there has been an ongoing battle deciding at what times we should take the open, close, high and low from each session. From our point of view, the times that produce more accurate predictions is taking the open at 00:00 GMT and the close at 23:59 GMT (obviously the high and low in between those hours).
Besides the calculation of the PP, there are other support and resistance levels that are calculated using the PP as a reference.
Support 1 (S1) = (PP * 2) – H
Resistance 1 (R1) = (PP * 2) - L
Support 2 (S2) = PP – (R1 – S1)
Resistance 2 (R2 ) = R1 + (PP – S1)
Where, H is the High of the previous period
L is the low of the previous period
Continuing with the example above, PP = 1.2436
S1 = (1.2436 * 2) - 1.2474 = 1.2398
R1 = (1.2436 * 2) – 1.2376 = 1.2496
R2 = 1.2496 + (1.2436 – 1.2398) = 1.2338
S2 = 1.2436 – (1.2496 – 1.2398) = 1.2534
These levels are supposed to mark support and resistance levels for the current session.
In the next chart we have calculated the PP and the support and resistance levels for September 5th.
S2 = 1.2616
S1 = 1.2579
PP = 1.2545
R1 = 1.2508
R2 = 1.2474
Forex Pivot Points
[Chart 1]
Vertical lines separate sessions (4th and 5th of September). As we can see, the market went rapidly below the PP level. From that point on, we should be careful with longs, and start thinking on shorts, because the sentiment of traders and investors is turning to “net short”.
Notice how the PP represents a resistance on early September 5th. Notice also S1 rejected twice the price as it approached the S1 level representing good trading opportunities. Finally, S2 marked a good support, this indicates weakness on current bears, which tells us that the sentiment is not as strong as it was at the beginning of the trading session.
On the example above, the PP was calculated using information of the previous session (previous day). This way we could see possible intraday resistance and support levels. But it can also be calculated using the previous weekly or monthly data to determine such levels. By doing so, we are able to see the sentiment over longer periods of time. In addition, we can see possible levels that might offer support and resistance throughout the week or month. Calculating the weekly or monthly pivot point is mostly used by long term traders, and as we said, it gives us a good idea about the longer term trend.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Technical Analysis, technical indicators,Bollinger Bands (BB)

Indicator was developed by John Bollinger. This indicator consists of three different components:
- A simple moving average in the middle
- An upper band, which is calculated by adding 2 standard deviations to the middle MA
- A lower band, which is calculated by subtracting 2 standard deviations to the middle MA.
The principal objective of this indicator is to measure the volatility at any given moment relative to historical volatility of any given currency pair.

Bollinger Bands Usage

Usage No 1
Volatility. When the upper and lower bands expand it indicates more volatility relative to previous periods. When the bands get narrower it indicates the volatility at the moment is lower than the volatility of previous periods.
Bollinger Bands to measure volatility
[Chart 24]

Usage No 2
- Bands as support and resistance. Sometimes the extreme bands can act as important support and resistance levels.
Thus, we can take trades as the price bounces off the bands, as prices break out the bands, etc. This type of trading is recommended on pullbacks or retracements and during trendless conditions (to scalp). Of course, with the help of other technical indicators the signals will increase their accuracy.
Bollinger Bands as Support and Resistance
[Chart 25]
The signals that are taken in direction of the trend offer much better accuracy than those taken against the trend.
The psychology behind this signal is that most of the time the market will be inside both bands. When the market reaches either band, it will tend to retrace or switch directions to the other side as “it has reached its normal deviation”.

Friday, February 7, 2014

Technical Analysis, technical indicators,Stochastics (STC)

Developed by George Lane in the 50´s. Stochastics compare the last closing price relative to its trading range over the chosen periods. The values of the stochastic oscillator range between 0 and 1, or more precisely between 0% and 100%.
When the reading of the oscillator is near zero, it indicates that the last period closing price closed near the bottom of the n-period range. A reading close to 1 indicates that the last period closing price closed near the top of the n-period range.
A 9 period stochastic will measure the last close relative to the last 9 periods low and high range.
There are three types of stochastics: fast, slow and full stochastics. The slow stochastic is simply a smoother (less whipsaws but less sensitive to price fluctuations) version of the fast stochastic. The full stochastic adds an additional parameter which makes it even smother than the slow stochastic.

Stochastic Usage
Usage No 1 - Overbought/oversold conditions. Stochastics are probably the most used indicator for these purposes. A buy signal is given when the readings are below 20% and rises above this level (buy signal – oversold condition). A sell signal occurs when the reading is above 80% and falls back down below that level (sell signal - overbought condition). When the market is trending, it is advised to take only those signals that are in direction of the trend.

Stochastics as an Oscillator
[Chart 19]
As we already mentioned, stochastics are probably the indicator that gives overbought and oversold signals more accurately. The signal is triggered when the indicator returns to the neutral territory from an oversold or overbought condition.

Usage No 2 - Divergence trading. As other indicators, stochastics also give divergence signals.
Stochastics to trade Divergence
[Chart 20]
This is the same chart we used for the RSI divergence. As you can see the RSI works better and signals a clearer divergence. Either way, the divergence is present.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Technical Analysis, technical indicators, Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI is an extremely popular oscillator developed by Welles Wilder in 1978. It measures the strength in which the market trends up or down (the ratio of up and down candlesticks for a chosen period of time). The values of the RSI oscillate between 0 and 100. A value close to 100 indicates the market has been trending up sharply, while values close to zero indicate the market has been trending down.
As the RSI approaches to extreme levels, the indicator becomes less sensitive to price fluctuations, making the indicator to go back to neutral levels.

RSI Usage

Usage No 1
- Overbought/oversold conditions. Values above 80 are considered overbought and values below 20 are considered oversold. As the market reaches higher levels, there is a possibility that every bull interested in the instrument has already taken a position (this took the RSI above the 80 level). At this point weak longs start taking profits and closing out positions. This gives the market a chance to retrace, letting the RSI get back to neutral levels, breaking back down the 80 level as the price sells off. The same is true for a downside move, as the RSI reaches the oversold territory (below zero), bears start to take profits, giving the RSI the strength needed to get back to neutral levels, making the price rally.
RSI as an oscillator
[Chart 16]
Remember overbought and oversold signals are triggered then the indicators returns to neutral territory from an overbought or oversold condition. These types of signals tend to work better when the market is ranging.

Usage No 2 Divergence. Like other indicators, the RSI is also used for divergence trades but probably the RTI is the best indicator to measure and trade off divergences. When prices reach new levels and the indicator fails to make comparable highs/lows, divergence is present.
RSI to trade Divergence
[Chart 17]
In this chart we clearly see how the market reaches lower lows while the indicator is unable to replicate those lower lows (it makes higher highs). This indicates that the market isn’t as strong as it was at the beginning. As other trading signals, when the divergence is present it could signal a trend reversal, retracement or a consolidation period.

Usage No 3 - Trend indicator. When the values of the RSI are above 50 it indicates that the average gains are greater than the average loses (uptrend). Readings below 50 indicate that the average loses are greater than the average gains (downtrend).
RSI as a Trend Indicator
[Chart 18]
The basic rule would be: when the RSI is above 50 the market is to be considered in an uptrend, when the RSI is below 50 the market is considered to be in a downtrend.
It is important to mention that when using the RSI in this way, it is advisable to choose longer periods [i.e. RSI(40) or RSI(80)] .

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Technical Analysis, Introduction To technical indicators

In this , we will review the most important technical indicators used to trade the Forex market.
Technical indicators are no more than a series of data points plotted in a chart that are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given instrument. In other words, indicators are just a different way in which price movements can be represented over specified periods of time (they offer us a different perspective).
Some technical indicators are used to confirm price action (lagging indicators), others are used to predict price action while some others are used as an alert or warning of a possible break on price action.

A) Lagging indicators
- These indicators follow the price action, in other words they confirm what the price just did. The signals that come out of this type of technical indicators usually happen after the change in price begins. These types of indicators are also called trend-following indicators and work best during trending markets, where they allow traders to catch most of the move. During trendless conditions (sideways or ranging market) these types of indicators give many false signals.
B) Leading indicators - These indicators try to predict future price movements. They give signals before the actual price movement begins. These kinds of indicators work best during consolidation periods or trendless markets. During trending conditions, only signals in direction of the existing trend are advised to be taken. During up-trending conditions, leading indicators help us identify oversold conditions (price has falling enough and it is ready to continue its trend). During downtrending conditions, they help us identify overbought conditions (price has rallied enough, and now it is ready to continue its trend).
When using leading indicators it is also advisable to wait for the actual price movements before taking the indicator signal.
Most important lagging indicators: Moving Averages (MA) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).*
Most important leading indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastics, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Momentum.*

*Some of these indicators can be used both as a lagging indicator and as a leading indicator.

Sensitivity vs. Consistency
                                       Before going through all the indicators it is important to understand the relationship between these two concepts. Every indicator represents price movements over a chosen period. Each indicator gives you the option to decide on how many periods you want to go back over to do the calculation. If we shorten the period, we will get more and earlier signals, but at the same time, the percentage of false signals will also increase. If we increase the number of periods, false signals will decrease, but the signal will get us in a trade later, giving up some profits.
It is up to the trader to select the approach that best suits his or her trading personality, trading style and objectives.

Then  we will cover the following topics:
1- Moving Averages - 
                               In this section, we will review moving averages, what they tell you, common uses, etc.

2-Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) –
                                            MACD is a popular indicator that can be used in several ways to our benefit. 

3-Commodity Channel Index (CCI) – 
                                             The CCI is an indicators that quickly reacts to the price action. 

4-Relative Strength Index (RSI) –  
                                            This indicator measures the ration of bull and bear candlesticks, the information is then plotted and can tell us several market conditions. 

5-Stochastics (STC) –  
                               We will review the best overbought/oversold indicator. 

6-Momentum (MOM) – 
                                            Trying to measure the strength/momentum of the market can help us take better decision. 

7- Bollinger Bands (BB) – 
                                          This volatility indicator developed by Bollinger shows us how far the market could go during “normal conditions”. 

8- Average Directional Index (ADX) –  
                                               The ADX is an indicator that measures the strength of the trend in any market. 

9-Fibonacci Retracements – 
                                             Once the market has retraced, the Fibonacci retracements can help us determine where could the retracement could end. 

10-Pivot Points (PP) –  
                                PP is a popular technique that shows us the sentiment of the market and other useful information. 

11- Important Considerations about Technical Indicators –  
                                What’s inside indicators, how should we use them? Do they generate accurate signals? 

12-Time-Frames –  
                               The combination of time-frames is critical to have good results.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Technical Analysis, Falling & Rising Wedge

You may wonder why is it that we have the falling and rising wedge in a separate section. The reason is simple, these patterns can be either reversal or continuation patterns. Depending on where the pattern was formed and its slope it could signal a continuation of the trend or a trend reversal. 
Let’s see each one of them.

Continuation Rising Wedge
As all wedges, this one begins wide and contracts as the market reaches new highs:
Rising Wedge Continuation Pattern
[Image 3]
Continuation rising wedges are a bearish continuation pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going up. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the support trendline.

What makes this wedge a continuation pattern?
The slope of the wedge is against the previous trend.

Continuation Rising Wedge in Action
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern in Action
[Chart 6]
This rising wedge is a continuation pattern because the slope (upward) of the wedge is against the trend (downtrend). When the pattern got completed (support trendline got broken), led to further downside movements.

Continuation Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern
[Image 9]
Continuation falling wedges are a bullish continuation pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going down. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the resistance trendline.
What makes this wedge a continuation pattern?
The slope of the wedge is against the previous trend.

Continuation Falling Wedge in Action
Falling Wedge Continuation Pattern
[Chart 6]
This falling wedge is a continuation pattern because the slope (downward) of the wedge is against the direction of the trend (uptrend). When the market broke the support trendline and the pattern got completed, it led to further gains.

Reversal Rising Wedge
This pattern begins wide and contracts as the market keeps rising:
Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Image 7]
Reversal rising wedges are a bearish reversal pattern found at the end of the uptrend. Starts out wide, and narrows as the market reaches new highs forming a rising wedge when two or more points are connected. The pattern is completed when the price breaks the support trendline.

What makes this wedge a reversal pattern?
The slope of the wedge is in direction of the trend. In this case the market was trending up and the slope of the wedge is upward.

Reversal Rising Wedge in Action
Rising Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Chart 6]
This rising wedge is a reversal pattern because the slope (upward) of the wedge is in the same direction of the trend (uptrend). The pattern is completed when the market breaks the support-trendline. Notice the reversal rising wedge here forecasts a retracement, not a trend reversal. The market movement after a wedge or any reversal pattern could produce: a trend reversal, the beginning of a retracement or a consolidation period.

Reversal Falling Wedge
Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Image 7]
Reversal falling wedges are a bullish reversal pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going down. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the resistance trendline.

What makes this wedge a reversal pattern?
The slope of the wedge is in direction of the trend. In this case the market was trending up and the slope of the wedge is upward.

Reversal Falling Wedge in Action
Falling Wedge Reversal Pattern
[Chart 6]
This falling wedge is a reversal pattern because the slope (downward) of the wedge is in the same direction of the trend (downtrend). The pattern is not complete until the market breaks the resistance trendline.

Commonly used target for all wedges
Measure the height of the pattern (in its widest side) in terms of pips, and then subtract/sum the same amount of pips from the eventual break out level.

Monday, January 6, 2014

Technical Analysis, Chart Patterns

The same psychology used with candlesticks applies to chart patterns.
Investors and traders make transactions for a wide variety of reasons; most trading decisions are emotionally driven: closing a position because of fear of losing more, adding more positions in hope of greater gains and many more. All these result in an imbalance of supply and demand and they are all uncovered by price movements.
These movements tend to repeat themselves, as traders open, close or add positions for the same reasons.
We must remember that the important questions to answer are where is the price? And what it is more likely to do? The reasons behind why is the pattern formed are not important.
There are two types of chart patterns: reversal and continuation chart patterns.

Continuation Chart Patterns Set up the market for a follow through in direction of the prevailing trend. Among the most important continuation patterns are:
  • Wedges – Rising and falling wedges
  • Triangles – symmetrical, ascending and descending triangles.
  • Rectangles – periods of consolidation*
* When rectangles have a slope they are called rising and falling channels.

Reversal Chart Patterns These types of patterns set up the market for a trend reversal once the pattern is confirmed. Reversal patterns are:

Rising and Falling Wedges
Falling wedges can be bullish and reversal patterns. Read this section to discover why.
Next, we will review some of the most important patterns.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Technical Analysis, Major Candlestick Reversal Patterns 2

5- Engulfing Reversal Pattern
In the image below, engulfing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.
Engulfing Pattern 
Formation

Engulfing patterns consist of two candlesticks. The first one is usually a small candle, and must be in direction of the prevailing trend (in an uptrend the short candlestick must be white and in a downtrend the candlestick must be black) while the second candlestick must be against the prevailing trend and is usually a long candlestick. Candles should have little or no shadows at all. The body of the second candlestick must cover or embrace the body of the first candle (shadows are not taken into consideration).

Psychology behind the Shooting Star and Examples
In a downtrend or downside movement where bulls have control over the markets, a bullish engulfing pattern indicates that bulls finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices (and intend to sell back at higher prices) and pushed the market up above the open price. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.
In an uptrend or upside movement where bulls have control over prices, a bearish engulfing pattern indicates that bears finally took total control over the market; they were attracted by the higher prices and pushed the market down below the open price. This might signal a short-term reversal pattern as clearly bears or sellers have taken control of the market. .
Bullish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go long!
Bearish Engulfing Patterns are signals to go short!

Bullish Engulfing in Action
Bullish Engulfing in Action


In the 5 min EURJPY chart a bullish engulfing pattern appears at the bottom of the range signaling a possible change in direction. The market goes up because of the bullish sentiment at lower prices. Bears notice bulls are really confident at those levels.
Bearish Engulfing in Action
Bearish Engulfing Pattern in Action


In the AUDUSD 5 min chart, an engulfing pattern appears at the top of the range signaling a “change in direction”. Remember that reversal pattern not always forecast trend reversals, correction or consolidation periods are always a possibility.

6- Piercing Reversal Patterns
In the image below, piercing patterns are represented by the last two candlesticks of the illustration.
Piercing Pattern


* The bearish piercing pattern is also called “Dark Cloud Cover”. For the sake of simplicity, in this course we will always refer to this pattern as bearish piercing pattern.
Formation
Piercing patterns, as engulfing patterns, are also made from two candlesticks. Both candlesticks should have long bodies and small or no shadows. The first candlestick must be in direction of the prevailing trend and the second against it. The further the second candle goes against the trend the more significant the pattern is. Candlesticks could have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Piercing Patterns and Examples
In a downtrend or downside movement where buyers have control over the markets, a bullish piercing pattern indicates that buyers finally took total control over prices, they were attracted by the lower prices and pushed the market up near the highs of the day. This could signal a trend reversal, a correction or a consolidation period.
A bearish piercing pattern, or most commonly called dark cloud cover indicates that bears liked to sell on those higher prices, gaining temporary control. If the move is strong enough, bulls will close their longs making the price sell off. The close price of the second candle must be below the midpoint of the first candle body.
Bullish Piercing Patterns are signals to go long!
Bearish Piercing Patterns are signals to go short!
Bullish Piercing in Action
Bullish Engulfing Pattern


Hey, forget about the red box! We will get to that a few lines below. The bullish piercing pattern at the yellow box illustrates what the balance of supply and demand in this scenario: bears make a final push down, but bulls take command of the market pushing them up again.

What’s the red box?
It was the result of the Interest rate announcement from Canada. Consensus was no change but the Bank of Canada decided to cut .25%, it’s a 100 pip 5 min candlestick.
Bearish Piercing in Action
Bearish Piercing in Action


This is a valid bearish piercing pattern at the GBPUSD 30 min chart. Small shadows, first candle in direction of the movement and second candles against it. This pattern marks the end of the retracement. 

7- Morning Star & Evening Star
In the image below, morning and evening stars are represented by the last three candlesticks of each illustration.
Evening and Morning Star



Formation
Morning and evening stars are made from three candlesticks. The first candlestick is always in the direction of the trend or current direction, the second candlestick could be a black or white one while the third must be against the prevailing trend or direction. Usually candlesticks in these formations have small or no shadows at all.

Psychology behind Evening and Morning Stars and Examples
The morning star pattern begins with a long bearish candlestick or big sell off (in direction of the prevailing trend). At the second candle, the bears are not sure anymore about the downtrend continuing its path. At this point, the buyers feel a little stronger than before. Buyers take total control of prices on the next candle making the market rally. The closer the candlestick closes from the first candlestick open price, the stronger the pattern.
Evening stars begin with a long white candlestick in direction of the prevailing trend. At this point, the bulls are still confident about the uptrend. At the next candle though, the bears start selling attracted by the higher prices. This candle represents a short period of indecision or a fierce battle between bulls and bears. On the third candlestick, bears take total control of the situation making the price sell off. The larger the third candle is, the stronger the reversal.
Morning Stars are long signals.
Evening Stars are short signals.
Morning Star in Action
Morning Star


In this USDCHF 1 min chart we see two morning stars patters that finally capped the downside movements. The trend wasn’t reversed, at least there some support is found around those levels.
Evening Star in Action
Evening Star in Action


GBPJPY 1 min chart, the evening star at the beginning of the chart makes the market head down to reach lower levels. Bearish pressure is self evident: bears start selling and bulls take profits (sell back), this makes the market drop like a rock.

8- Harami Reversal Patterns
In the image below, Harami patters are represented by the last two candlesticks of each illustration.
Harami Pattern



Formation
Both, bearish and bullish harami are made from two candlesticks. The first one is always a large candlestick in direction of the trend or current move and the second one against the direction of the trend or current move. Candlesticks could have small or no shadow at all. The body of the second candlestick must be inside the body of the first one.
Although the size of the body of the second candlestick is smaller than the size of the first one, it should be “larger” than usual.

Psychology behind Bearish and Bullish Harami and Examples
In the bullish harami, bulls stop bear dominance and take temporary control over the market. The first candlestick of the bullish harami is the final push of bears while the second one means bears are feeling more confident about further upside movements.
In the bearish harami, bears step in after a high volume bull push. Prices are high enough to start opening their short positions. The closer the second candlestick closes to the open of the first one, the stronger the short sentiment.
Bullish Harami are long signals
Bearish Harami are short signals
Bullish Harami in Action
Bearish Harami in Action


As we have mentioned before, reversal patterns not only signal trend reversals, they also signal possible retracements and consolidation periods. In this case, the harami pattern signals a correction period. Now, take in consideration this is a weekly chart, from the top of the pattern to the bottom of the retracement there are around 500 pips.

Bearish Harami in Action
Bearish Harami in Action


In the USDCHF 4H chart above, a bearish harami pattern appears after the retracement. It could signal the end of the retracement; traders could resume their short positions.