• My core trading philosophy
My personal trading style is completely focused on “reading” the
price movement of the market in its “natural” form, or in other words:
“Price Action Trading Analysis’”. I don’t use any indicators or
confusing systems; I simply trade from a naked price chart.
I have an arsenal of powerful price action patterns that I look for
within the structure of the market. For example, if a market is in an
uptrend, I will be looking for price to retrace to a support level
within the uptrend, this is what I consider a “value” area, and I will
then watch patiently for one of my price action signals
to confirm a trade entry. Whilst the majority of my trades are
following the trend of the market, I will occasionally take a
counter-trend trade setup or a range-bound market trade.
Regardless of what direction I am trading, the main thing I am
looking for is “obvious” price patterns forming at “key” levels in the
market. When I see one of my trade setups has formed at a key level in
the market, I consider this a green-light confirmation signal for me to
enter a trade. Given that there are only a ‘few’ good signals each week,
I spend a lot of time just waiting patiently for a trading opportunity.
I wrote a very popular article last year on the concept of being a
patient trader waiting to ambush trading opportunities, you can read
that article here: “Trading Like A Sniper “.
In summary, my trading approach is largely built on finding multiple
pieces of “evidence” that work together to confirm an entry into the
market. Professional traders call this “trading with confluence”.
In regards to my price action trading strategies, trading with
confluence means looking for multiple factors on the chart that support
the case for entering on a price action signal that has formed.
Overall, my trading strategy might appear quite simple, and frankly
it is, but as I said before; simple is better in Forex trading. I’ll be
honest with you guys, must unprofitable or beginner traders are
attracted to overly-complex trading methods and this is usually what
leads to their eventual failure. As a trader who has “been around the
block” a few times, I know what has worked for me in the markets, and I
feel it’s my job to convey that information to other traders. Thus, my
main priority as a trading mentor is to teach my students how to trade
with a simple forex trading strategy.
Showing posts with label trading strategies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading strategies. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
Saturday, September 14, 2013
Forex trading mistakes and traps(4- No trading plan and no routine or discipline)
Not having a Forex trading plan is perhaps the most prevalent trading mistake the Forex traders make. Many traders seem to think that they will create a trading plan “later on” or after they start making money or that they simply don’t need one or can just keep it “in their heads”. All of these rationalizations are simply keeping traders from achieving the success they so badly desire. If you don’t have a Forex trading plan that details all of your actions in the market as well as your overall trading approach and strategy, you will be far more likely to operate emotionally and from a gambling mindset. Beginner traders especially need a Forex trading plan to solidify their trading strategy and to create a guide that they use to trade the market from, and you can’t keep it in your head…you need to physically write out your trading plan and read it every day you trade
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Risk Reward and Money Management in Forex Trading
This could possibly be the most important Forex trading article you ever read. That
might sound like a bold statement, but it’s really not too bold when
you consider the fact that proper money management is the most important
ingredient to successful Forex trading.
Money management in Forex trading is the term given to describe the
various aspects of managing your risk and reward on every trade you
make. If you don’t fully understand the implications of money management
as well as how to actually implement money management techniques, you
have a very slim chance of becoming a consistently profitable trader.
I am going to explain the most important aspects of money management in this article; risk / reward, position sizing, and fixed dollar risk vs. percentage risk. So, grab a cup of your favorite beverage and follow along as I help you understand some of the most critical concepts to a profitable Forex trading career…
Many traders do not take full advantage of the power of risk reward because they don’t have the patience to consistently execute a large enough series of trades in order to realize what risk reward can actually do. Risk reward does not mean simply calculating the risk and reward on a trade, it means understanding that by achieving 2 to 3 times risk or more on all your winning trades, you should be able to make money over a series of trades even if you lose the majority of the time. When we combine the consistent execution of a risk / reward of 1:2 or larger with a high-probability trading edge like price action, we have the recipe for a very potent Forex trading strategy.
Let’s take a look at the 4hr chart of Gold to see how to calculate risk / reward on a pin bar setup. We can see in the chart below there was an obvious pin bar that formed from support in an up-trending market, so the price action signal was solid. Next, we calculate the risk; in this case our stop loss is placed just below the low of the pin bar, so we would then calculate how many lots we can trade given the stop loss distance. We are going to assume a hypothetical risk of $100 for this example. We can see this setup has so far grossed a reward of 3 times risk, which would be $300.
Now, with a reward of 3 times risk, how many trades can we lose out
of a series of 25 and STILL make money? The answer is 18 trades or 72%.
That’s right; you can lose 72% of your trades with a risk / reward of
1:3 or better and STILL make money…..over a series of trades.
Here is the math real quick:
18 losing trades at $100 risk = -$1800, 7 winning trades with a 3 R (risk) reward = $2100. So, after 25 trades you would have made $300, but you also would have had to endure 18 losing trades…and the trick is that you never know when the losers are coming. You might get 18 losers in a row before the 7 winners pop up, that is unlikely, but it IS possible.
So, risk / reward essentially all boils down to this main point; you have to have the fortitude to set and forget your trades over a large enough series of executions to realize the full power of risk / reward. Now, obviously if you are using a high-probability trading method like price action strategies, you aren’t likely to lose 72% of the time. So, just imagine what you can do if you properly and consistently implement risk reward with an effective trading strategy like price action.
Unfortunately, most traders are either too emotionally undisciplined to implement risk reward correctly, or they don’t know how to. Meddling in your trades by moving stops further from entry or not taking logical 2 or 3 R profits as they present themselves are two big mistakes traders make. They also tend to take profits of 1R or smaller, this only means you have to win a much higher percentage of your trades to make money over the long-run. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint, and the WAY YOU WIN the marathon is through consistent implementation of risk reward combined with the mastery of a truly effective trading strategy.
1) First you need to decide how much money in dollars (or whatever your national currency is) you are COMFORTABLE WITH LOSING on the trade setup. This is not something you should take lightly. You need to genuinely be OK with losing on any ONE trade, because as we discussed in the previous section, you could indeed lose on ANY trade; you never know which trade will be a winner and which will be a loser.
2) Find the most logical place to put your stop loss. If you are trading a pin bar setup this will usually be just above / below the high / low of the tail of the pin bar. Similarly, the other setups I teach generally have “ideal” places to put your stop loss. The basic idea is to place your stop loss at a level that will nullify the setup if it gets hit, or on the other side of an obvious support or resistance area; this is logical stop placement. What you should NEVER DO, is place your stop too close to your entry at an arbitrary position just because you want to trade a higher lot size, this is GREED, and it will come back to bite you much harder than you can possibly imagine.
3) Next, you need to enter the number of lots or mini-lots that will give you the $ risk you want with the stop loss distance you have decided is the most logical. One mini-lot is typically about $1 per pip, so if your pre-defined risk amount is $100 and your stop loss distance 50 pips, you will trade 2 mini-lots; $2 per pip x 50 pip stop loss = $100 risked.
The three steps above describe how to properly use position sizing. The biggest point to remember is that you NEVER adjust your stop loss to meet your desired position size; instead you ALWAYS adjust your position size to meet your pre-defined risk and logical stop loss placement. This is VERY IMPORTANT, read it again.
The next important aspect of position sizing that you need to understand, is that it allows you to trade the same $ amount of risk on any trade. For example, just because you have to have a wider stop on a trade doesn’t mean you need to risk more money on it, and just because you can have a smaller stop on a trade does not mean you will risk less money it. You adjust your position size to meet your pre-determined risk amount, no matter how big or small your stop loss is. Many beginning traders get confused by this and think they are risking more with a bigger stop or less with a smaller stop; this is not necessarily the case.
Let’s take a look at the current daily chart of the EURUSD below. We can see two different price action trading setups; a pin bar setup and an inside-pin bar setup. These setups required different stop loss distances, but as we can see in the chart below we still would risk the exact same amount on both trades, thanks to position sizing:
Fixed percent risk model = A trader picks a percentage of their account to risk per trade (usually 2 or 3%) and sticks with that risk percentage.
In a previous article that I wrote about money management titled “Forex Trading Money Management – An Eye Opening Article”, I argued that using a fixed dollar amount of risk is superior to the percent of account risk model. The primary argument I make about this topic is that although the % R method will grow an account relatively quickly when a trader hits a series of winners, it actually slows account growth after a trader hits a series of losers, and makes it very difficult to bring the account back up to where it previously stood. This is because with the % R risk model you trade fewer lots as your account value decreases, while this can be good to limit losses, it also essentially puts you in a rut that is very hard to get out of. What is needed is mastery of one’s trading strategy combined with a fixed dollar risk you are comfortable with losing on any given trade, and when you combine these factors with consistent execution of risk / reward, you have an excellent chance at making money over a series of trades.
The % R model essentially induces a trader to ‘lose slowly’ because what tends to happen is that traders begin to think “Since my position size is decreasing on every trade it’s OK if I trade more often”…and whilst they may not specifically think that sentence…it is often what happens. I personally believe the % R model makes traders lazy…it makes them take setups that they otherwise wouldn’t…because they are now risking less money per trade they don’t value that money as much…it’s human nature.
Also, the %R model really serves no real world purpose in professional trading as the account size is arbitrary; meaning the account size does not reflect the true risk profile of each person, nor does it represent their entire net worth. The account size is actually a ‘margin account’ and you only need to deposit enough in an account to cover the margin on positions…so you could have the rest of your trading money in a savings account or in a mutual fund or even precious metals…many professional traders do not keep all of their potential risk capital in their trading account.
The fixed $ risk model makes sense for professional traders who want to derive a real income from their trading; it’s how I trade and it’s how many others I know trade. Pro traders actually withdrawal their profits from their trading account each month, their account then goes back to its “baseline” level.
It’s quite obvious upon analyzing this series of random trades that the fixed $ model is superior. Sure you will draw your account down a bit quicker when you hit a series of losers with the fixed $ model, but the flip side is that you also build your account much quicker when you hit a series of winners (and recover from draw downs a lot faster). The key is that if you’re really trading like a sniper and you’ve mastered your trading strategy…you’re unlikely to have a lot of losing trades in a row, so the fixed $ risk model will be more beneficial to you.
In the example image below, we are looking at the fixed $ risk model versus the % risk model:
Now this example is a bit extreme, if you are trading with price action trading strategies
and have truly mastered them, you shouldn’t be losing 68% of the time;
your winning percentage is likely to average close to 50%. You can
imagine how much better the results would be with a 50% winning
percentage. If you won 50% of the time over 25 trades while risking $100
on a $2,000 account, you would have $4,500. If you won 50% of the time
over 25 trades while risking 2% of $2,000, you would have only about
$3,300.
Many professional traders use the fixed dollar risk method because they know that they have mastered their forex trading strategy, they don’t over-trade, and they don’t over-leverage, so they can safely risk a set amount they are comfortable with losing on any trade.
People who trade the %R model are more likely to over-trade and think that because their dollar risk per trade is decreasing with each loser it’s OK to trade more trades (and thus they lose more trades because they are taking lower-probability trades)…and then over time this over-trading puts them much further behind a fixed $ trader who is probably more cautious and sniper- like.
I am going to explain the most important aspects of money management in this article; risk / reward, position sizing, and fixed dollar risk vs. percentage risk. So, grab a cup of your favorite beverage and follow along as I help you understand some of the most critical concepts to a profitable Forex trading career…
Risk : Reward
Risk reward is the most important aspect to managing your money in the markets. However, many traders do not completely grasp how to fully take advantage of the power of risk reward. Every trader in the market wants to maximize their rewards and minimize their risks. This is the basic building block to becoming a consistently profitable trader. The proper knowledge and implementation of risk reward gives traders a practical framework to do this.Many traders do not take full advantage of the power of risk reward because they don’t have the patience to consistently execute a large enough series of trades in order to realize what risk reward can actually do. Risk reward does not mean simply calculating the risk and reward on a trade, it means understanding that by achieving 2 to 3 times risk or more on all your winning trades, you should be able to make money over a series of trades even if you lose the majority of the time. When we combine the consistent execution of a risk / reward of 1:2 or larger with a high-probability trading edge like price action, we have the recipe for a very potent Forex trading strategy.
Let’s take a look at the 4hr chart of Gold to see how to calculate risk / reward on a pin bar setup. We can see in the chart below there was an obvious pin bar that formed from support in an up-trending market, so the price action signal was solid. Next, we calculate the risk; in this case our stop loss is placed just below the low of the pin bar, so we would then calculate how many lots we can trade given the stop loss distance. We are going to assume a hypothetical risk of $100 for this example. We can see this setup has so far grossed a reward of 3 times risk, which would be $300.
Now, with a reward of 3 times risk, how many trades can we lose out
of a series of 25 and STILL make money? The answer is 18 trades or 72%.
That’s right; you can lose 72% of your trades with a risk / reward of
1:3 or better and STILL make money…..over a series of trades.Here is the math real quick:
18 losing trades at $100 risk = -$1800, 7 winning trades with a 3 R (risk) reward = $2100. So, after 25 trades you would have made $300, but you also would have had to endure 18 losing trades…and the trick is that you never know when the losers are coming. You might get 18 losers in a row before the 7 winners pop up, that is unlikely, but it IS possible.
So, risk / reward essentially all boils down to this main point; you have to have the fortitude to set and forget your trades over a large enough series of executions to realize the full power of risk / reward. Now, obviously if you are using a high-probability trading method like price action strategies, you aren’t likely to lose 72% of the time. So, just imagine what you can do if you properly and consistently implement risk reward with an effective trading strategy like price action.
Unfortunately, most traders are either too emotionally undisciplined to implement risk reward correctly, or they don’t know how to. Meddling in your trades by moving stops further from entry or not taking logical 2 or 3 R profits as they present themselves are two big mistakes traders make. They also tend to take profits of 1R or smaller, this only means you have to win a much higher percentage of your trades to make money over the long-run. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint, and the WAY YOU WIN the marathon is through consistent implementation of risk reward combined with the mastery of a truly effective trading strategy.
Position Sizing
Position sizing is the term given to the process of adjusting the number of lots you trade to meet your pre-determined risk amount and stop loss distance. That is a bit of a loaded sentence for the newbie’s. So, let’s break it down piece by piece. This is how you calculate your position size on every trade you make:1) First you need to decide how much money in dollars (or whatever your national currency is) you are COMFORTABLE WITH LOSING on the trade setup. This is not something you should take lightly. You need to genuinely be OK with losing on any ONE trade, because as we discussed in the previous section, you could indeed lose on ANY trade; you never know which trade will be a winner and which will be a loser.
2) Find the most logical place to put your stop loss. If you are trading a pin bar setup this will usually be just above / below the high / low of the tail of the pin bar. Similarly, the other setups I teach generally have “ideal” places to put your stop loss. The basic idea is to place your stop loss at a level that will nullify the setup if it gets hit, or on the other side of an obvious support or resistance area; this is logical stop placement. What you should NEVER DO, is place your stop too close to your entry at an arbitrary position just because you want to trade a higher lot size, this is GREED, and it will come back to bite you much harder than you can possibly imagine.
3) Next, you need to enter the number of lots or mini-lots that will give you the $ risk you want with the stop loss distance you have decided is the most logical. One mini-lot is typically about $1 per pip, so if your pre-defined risk amount is $100 and your stop loss distance 50 pips, you will trade 2 mini-lots; $2 per pip x 50 pip stop loss = $100 risked.
The three steps above describe how to properly use position sizing. The biggest point to remember is that you NEVER adjust your stop loss to meet your desired position size; instead you ALWAYS adjust your position size to meet your pre-defined risk and logical stop loss placement. This is VERY IMPORTANT, read it again.
The next important aspect of position sizing that you need to understand, is that it allows you to trade the same $ amount of risk on any trade. For example, just because you have to have a wider stop on a trade doesn’t mean you need to risk more money on it, and just because you can have a smaller stop on a trade does not mean you will risk less money it. You adjust your position size to meet your pre-determined risk amount, no matter how big or small your stop loss is. Many beginning traders get confused by this and think they are risking more with a bigger stop or less with a smaller stop; this is not necessarily the case.
Let’s take a look at the current daily chart of the EURUSD below. We can see two different price action trading setups; a pin bar setup and an inside-pin bar setup. These setups required different stop loss distances, but as we can see in the chart below we still would risk the exact same amount on both trades, thanks to position sizing:
The fixed dollar risk model VS The percent risk model
Fixed dollar risk model = A trader predetermines how much money they are comfortable with potentially losing per trade and risks that same amount on every trade until they decide to change their risk.Fixed percent risk model = A trader picks a percentage of their account to risk per trade (usually 2 or 3%) and sticks with that risk percentage.
In a previous article that I wrote about money management titled “Forex Trading Money Management – An Eye Opening Article”, I argued that using a fixed dollar amount of risk is superior to the percent of account risk model. The primary argument I make about this topic is that although the % R method will grow an account relatively quickly when a trader hits a series of winners, it actually slows account growth after a trader hits a series of losers, and makes it very difficult to bring the account back up to where it previously stood. This is because with the % R risk model you trade fewer lots as your account value decreases, while this can be good to limit losses, it also essentially puts you in a rut that is very hard to get out of. What is needed is mastery of one’s trading strategy combined with a fixed dollar risk you are comfortable with losing on any given trade, and when you combine these factors with consistent execution of risk / reward, you have an excellent chance at making money over a series of trades.
The % R model essentially induces a trader to ‘lose slowly’ because what tends to happen is that traders begin to think “Since my position size is decreasing on every trade it’s OK if I trade more often”…and whilst they may not specifically think that sentence…it is often what happens. I personally believe the % R model makes traders lazy…it makes them take setups that they otherwise wouldn’t…because they are now risking less money per trade they don’t value that money as much…it’s human nature.
Also, the %R model really serves no real world purpose in professional trading as the account size is arbitrary; meaning the account size does not reflect the true risk profile of each person, nor does it represent their entire net worth. The account size is actually a ‘margin account’ and you only need to deposit enough in an account to cover the margin on positions…so you could have the rest of your trading money in a savings account or in a mutual fund or even precious metals…many professional traders do not keep all of their potential risk capital in their trading account.
The fixed $ risk model makes sense for professional traders who want to derive a real income from their trading; it’s how I trade and it’s how many others I know trade. Pro traders actually withdrawal their profits from their trading account each month, their account then goes back to its “baseline” level.
Example of Fixed $ Risk Vs. % Risk
Let’s take a look at a hypothetical example of 25 trades. We are comparing the fixed $ risk model to a 2% account risk model. Note: We have chosen the 2% risk because it’s a very popular percent risk amount amongst newbie traders and on many other Forex education sites. The fixed $ risk was set at $100 per trade in this example just to show how a trader who is confident in his or her trading skills and trades like a sniper would be able to build his or her account faster than someone settling on a 2% per trade risk. In reality, the fixed $ risk will vary between traders and it’s up to the trader to determine what they are truly OK with losing per trade. For me, if I was trading a small $2,000 account, I would personally be comfortable risking about $100 per trade, so this is what our example below reflects.It’s quite obvious upon analyzing this series of random trades that the fixed $ model is superior. Sure you will draw your account down a bit quicker when you hit a series of losers with the fixed $ model, but the flip side is that you also build your account much quicker when you hit a series of winners (and recover from draw downs a lot faster). The key is that if you’re really trading like a sniper and you’ve mastered your trading strategy…you’re unlikely to have a lot of losing trades in a row, so the fixed $ risk model will be more beneficial to you.
In the example image below, we are looking at the fixed $ risk model versus the % risk model:
Now this example is a bit extreme, if you are trading with price action trading strategies
and have truly mastered them, you shouldn’t be losing 68% of the time;
your winning percentage is likely to average close to 50%. You can
imagine how much better the results would be with a 50% winning
percentage. If you won 50% of the time over 25 trades while risking $100
on a $2,000 account, you would have $4,500. If you won 50% of the time
over 25 trades while risking 2% of $2,000, you would have only about
$3,300.Many professional traders use the fixed dollar risk method because they know that they have mastered their forex trading strategy, they don’t over-trade, and they don’t over-leverage, so they can safely risk a set amount they are comfortable with losing on any trade.
People who trade the %R model are more likely to over-trade and think that because their dollar risk per trade is decreasing with each loser it’s OK to trade more trades (and thus they lose more trades because they are taking lower-probability trades)…and then over time this over-trading puts them much further behind a fixed $ trader who is probably more cautious and sniper- like.
Conclusion
To succeed at trading the Forex markets, you need to not only thoroughly understand risk reward, position sizing, and risk amount per trade, you also need to consistently execute each of these aspects of money management in combination with a highly effective yet simple to understand trading strategy like price action. To learn more about price action trading and the money management principles discussed in this articleFriday, September 6, 2013
Forex Trading Strategy(2)
• Trend trading
Trending markets offer us the best opportunity to profit, since the market is clearly moving in one general direction; we can use this information to our advantage by looking to enter the market in the direction of the trend.
An uptrend is marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows, and a downtrend is marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Note that trends do end, as we can see in the daily EURUSD chart below, the downtrend has come to an end recently after the pattern of lower highs and lower lows was broken…
I like to trade with the near-term daily trend by looking for high-probability price action strategies
forming within the structure of the market trend. What I mean by this
is essentially looking for price action setups forming near support as a
market rotates lower in an uptrend and near resistance as a market
rotates higher in a downtrend. Markets ebb and flow, and if you can
learn to take advantage of trending markets, you will have a very good
shot at becoming a profitable Forex trader:
• Counter-trend trading
Since trends do end, we can also take advantage of this information. However, counter-trend trading is inherently riskier and more difficult than trading with the trend, so it should only be attempted after you have fully mastered trading with the trend. Some of the things to look for in a good counter-trend signal is a price action pattern or setup forming at a very obvious and ‘key’ support or resistance level on the daily chart, see here:
• Range-bound market trading
When a market is in a trading range it means that it is consolidating between a level of support and resistance. We can use the fact that a market is bouncing between support and resistance to our advantage. As the market approaches the support or resistance boundary of the trading range, we have a high-probability entry level, since risk is clearly defined just above or below the resistance or support of the range. When trading price action in trading ranges, you can watch for obvious price action setups forming near the boundaries of the range, see here:
• Forex candlestick charts and patterns
We discussed Forex charts in Part 7, but as they are very important to the way that I trade and teach price action, I wanted to give them a little more time. I have previously written an excellent tutorial on Forex candlestick charts that you can check out here: Forex candlestick charts
It’s important to understand that candlestick patterns have certain terminology all to their self that you should become familiar with before you attempt to master a trading strategy like price action.
Trending markets offer us the best opportunity to profit, since the market is clearly moving in one general direction; we can use this information to our advantage by looking to enter the market in the direction of the trend.
An uptrend is marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows, and a downtrend is marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Note that trends do end, as we can see in the daily EURUSD chart below, the downtrend has come to an end recently after the pattern of lower highs and lower lows was broken…
I like to trade with the near-term daily trend by looking for high-probability price action strategies
forming within the structure of the market trend. What I mean by this
is essentially looking for price action setups forming near support as a
market rotates lower in an uptrend and near resistance as a market
rotates higher in a downtrend. Markets ebb and flow, and if you can
learn to take advantage of trending markets, you will have a very good
shot at becoming a profitable Forex trader:• Counter-trend trading
Since trends do end, we can also take advantage of this information. However, counter-trend trading is inherently riskier and more difficult than trading with the trend, so it should only be attempted after you have fully mastered trading with the trend. Some of the things to look for in a good counter-trend signal is a price action pattern or setup forming at a very obvious and ‘key’ support or resistance level on the daily chart, see here:
• Range-bound market trading
When a market is in a trading range it means that it is consolidating between a level of support and resistance. We can use the fact that a market is bouncing between support and resistance to our advantage. As the market approaches the support or resistance boundary of the trading range, we have a high-probability entry level, since risk is clearly defined just above or below the resistance or support of the range. When trading price action in trading ranges, you can watch for obvious price action setups forming near the boundaries of the range, see here:
• Forex candlestick charts and patterns
We discussed Forex charts in Part 7, but as they are very important to the way that I trade and teach price action, I wanted to give them a little more time. I have previously written an excellent tutorial on Forex candlestick charts that you can check out here: Forex candlestick charts
It’s important to understand that candlestick patterns have certain terminology all to their self that you should become familiar with before you attempt to master a trading strategy like price action.
Forex Trading Strategy
There are many different Forex trading strategies.
However, there are some basics of reading a price chart that you need
to know before you can move on to learning any one strategy in-depth.
Let’s cover the basic building blocks of trading the Forex market from a
technical analysis approach:
• Support and Resistance levels – How to identify and plot them
Support levels are created as a market turns higher. So, if a market is moving lower for example and it then changes direction and begins moving higher, it either has created a level of support or bounced off a previously existing level of support.
Resistance levels are created as a market turns lower. So, if a market is moving higher for example, and it then changed direction and beings moving lower, it either has created a level of resistance or bounced off a previously existing level of resistance:
Identifying and plotting support and resistance levels
is by no means an exact science. Instead, it requires the use of the
discerning human eye and a little bit of brain power…don’t be worried
though, it’s really not that difficult to become proficient and
confident in drawing support and resistance levels on your charts.
In the chart below, we can see the daily GBPUSD chart, with all the relevant support and resistance levels drawn in:
Now, one important point that I want you to know about support and
resistance levels is that they are not concrete. Many traders seem to
think support and resistance levels are concrete and that they should
never trade a setup if there is a support or resistance level close by,
this can result in them getting analysis paralysis and never entering a
trade. While it is true that you need to take into consideration the key
support and resistance levels in the market, you also need to look at
the overall market condition. You see, in trending markets, support and
resistance levels will often be broken by the trend momentum; so don’t
be afraid of support and resistance levels, as they will often break.
Instead, watch these levels for trading signals. You see, when a Forex
trading signal like a price action setup forms at a key support or
resistance level, it is a very high-probability even to take notice of.
• Support and Resistance levels – How to identify and plot them
Support levels are created as a market turns higher. So, if a market is moving lower for example and it then changes direction and begins moving higher, it either has created a level of support or bounced off a previously existing level of support.
Resistance levels are created as a market turns lower. So, if a market is moving higher for example, and it then changed direction and beings moving lower, it either has created a level of resistance or bounced off a previously existing level of resistance:
Identifying and plotting support and resistance levels
is by no means an exact science. Instead, it requires the use of the
discerning human eye and a little bit of brain power…don’t be worried
though, it’s really not that difficult to become proficient and
confident in drawing support and resistance levels on your charts.In the chart below, we can see the daily GBPUSD chart, with all the relevant support and resistance levels drawn in:
Now, one important point that I want you to know about support and
resistance levels is that they are not concrete. Many traders seem to
think support and resistance levels are concrete and that they should
never trade a setup if there is a support or resistance level close by,
this can result in them getting analysis paralysis and never entering a
trade. While it is true that you need to take into consideration the key
support and resistance levels in the market, you also need to look at
the overall market condition. You see, in trending markets, support and
resistance levels will often be broken by the trend momentum; so don’t
be afraid of support and resistance levels, as they will often break.
Instead, watch these levels for trading signals. You see, when a Forex
trading signal like a price action setup forms at a key support or
resistance level, it is a very high-probability even to take notice of.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
price action trading signal
• What is a price action trading signal?
Next, let’s discuss how we can use price action analysis to find entries into the Forex market from a raw price chart. As a result of years of trading the markets I have boiled down all I have learned into my own unique method of trading with price action. This method consists of a handful of very specific price action entry triggers that can provide you with a high-probability entry into the market. Essentially, what we are looking for is reoccurring price patterns that tell us something about what the market might do in the near-future.
For purposes of brevity and out of respect for my paid members, I won’t give away all of my trading strategies and entry triggers here, but you can learn more about the trading strategies that I teach in my trading course. In the chart below, we are going to look at a particularly good price action signal for trading with trends; the inside bar strategy.
In the example chart below, we can see one price action trading signal that I like to use in trending markets; the inside bar setup:
• How to use price action analysis to determine a market’s trend
You will probably come across many different indicators designed to tell you what the trend of a market is. However, the most time-tested and trusted way for determining a market’s trend is simply to look at the daily charts and analyze the market’s price action. To identify a downtrend, we look for patterns of lower highs and lower lows, sometimes annotated by “LH and LL”. To identify an uptrend, we look for patterns of higher highs and higher lows, sometimes annotated by “HH and HL”.
In the example chart below, we can see examples of a downtrend, an uptrend and an uptrend changing to a downtrend:
• Where and when should you trade a price action signal?
In my trading course I focus heavily on teaching my members how to trade with “confluence”. When I say “trading with confluence” I am basically referring to looking for areas or levels in the market that are clearly significant. Confluence means when things come together or intersect. Thus, when we are looking to “trade with confluence” we are trying to put together an obvious price action signal with a significant level in the market. There are different factors of confluence that we can watch for, but in the chart below I am showing you price action setups that formed at key support and resistance levels in the market; support and resistance are each a factor of confluence. Note, I have shown you two more price action setups in the chart below; the pin bar strategy and the fakey trading signal.
In the example chart below, we are looking how to trade price action setups from confluent levels in the market:
In closing…
This lesson gave you a basic overview of what price action analysis is and how to use it in the markets. From here, you should proceed to the next part of this beginner’s course and continue learning about Forex and price action trading.
Next, let’s discuss how we can use price action analysis to find entries into the Forex market from a raw price chart. As a result of years of trading the markets I have boiled down all I have learned into my own unique method of trading with price action. This method consists of a handful of very specific price action entry triggers that can provide you with a high-probability entry into the market. Essentially, what we are looking for is reoccurring price patterns that tell us something about what the market might do in the near-future.
For purposes of brevity and out of respect for my paid members, I won’t give away all of my trading strategies and entry triggers here, but you can learn more about the trading strategies that I teach in my trading course. In the chart below, we are going to look at a particularly good price action signal for trading with trends; the inside bar strategy.
In the example chart below, we can see one price action trading signal that I like to use in trending markets; the inside bar setup:
• How to use price action analysis to determine a market’s trendYou will probably come across many different indicators designed to tell you what the trend of a market is. However, the most time-tested and trusted way for determining a market’s trend is simply to look at the daily charts and analyze the market’s price action. To identify a downtrend, we look for patterns of lower highs and lower lows, sometimes annotated by “LH and LL”. To identify an uptrend, we look for patterns of higher highs and higher lows, sometimes annotated by “HH and HL”.
In the example chart below, we can see examples of a downtrend, an uptrend and an uptrend changing to a downtrend:
• Where and when should you trade a price action signal?
In my trading course I focus heavily on teaching my members how to trade with “confluence”. When I say “trading with confluence” I am basically referring to looking for areas or levels in the market that are clearly significant. Confluence means when things come together or intersect. Thus, when we are looking to “trade with confluence” we are trying to put together an obvious price action signal with a significant level in the market. There are different factors of confluence that we can watch for, but in the chart below I am showing you price action setups that formed at key support and resistance levels in the market; support and resistance are each a factor of confluence. Note, I have shown you two more price action setups in the chart below; the pin bar strategy and the fakey trading signal.
In the example chart below, we are looking how to trade price action setups from confluent levels in the market:
In closing…This lesson gave you a basic overview of what price action analysis is and how to use it in the markets. From here, you should proceed to the next part of this beginner’s course and continue learning about Forex and price action trading.
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Price Action Trading Analysis
What is Price Action Analysis?
My definition of Price Action Analysis: Price action analysis is the analysis of the price movement of a market over time. By learning to read the price action of a market, we can determine a market’s directional bias as well as trade from reoccurring price action patterns or price action setups that reflect changes or continuations in market sentiment.
In simpler terms: Price action analysis is the use of the natural or “raw” price movement of a market to analyze and trade it. This means, you are making all of your trading decisions based purely on the price bars on a “naked” or indicator-free price chart.
All economic variables create price movement which can be easily seen on a market’s price chart. Whether an economic variable is filtered down through a human trader or a computer trader, the movement that it creates in the market will be easily visible on a price chart. Therefore, instead of trying to analyze a million economic variables each day (this is impossible obviously), you can simply learn to trade from price action analysis because this style of trading allows you to easily analyze and make use of all market variables by simply reading and trading off of the price action created by said market variables.
• How do you apply price action analysis to the Forex market?
First, I want to say that price action analysis can be used to trade any financial market, since it simply makes use of the “core” price data of the market. However, my personal favorite market to trade is the Forex market, mainly due to its deep liquidity which makes it easy to enter and exit the market, and also because the Forex market tends to have better trending conditions as well as more volatility which makes for better directional trading and allows price action trading to really shine.
My own personal approach to trading and teaching price action trading is that you can trade effectively from a few time-tested price action setups. There really is no need to try and trade from 25 different price patterns, the Forex market moves in a relatively predictable fashion most of the time, so all we need is a handful of effective price action entry setups to give us a good chance at finding and entering high-probability trades.
The first thing you need to do to apply price action to the Forex market, is to strip your charts of all indicators and get a “clean” price chart with only the price bars in a color you like. I choose simple black and white or blue and red for my colors, but you can pick whichever colors you like (Part 7 will cover an introduction to charting). Here’s an example of my daily chart setup on the EURUSD:
Now, let’s look at an example of a clean and simple price
chart next to a price chart covered with some of the most popular
indicators that many traders use. I want you to look at these two charts
and think about which one seems easier and more logical to trade off
of:
From looking at the two charts above, you will probably agree that it
seems a little silly to hide the natural price action of a market with
messy and confusing indicators. All indicators are derived from price
movement anyways, so if we have a solid method to trade based only on
price movement (price action analysis), it only makes sense that we
would use that instead of trying to analyze messy secondary data.
My definition of Price Action Analysis: Price action analysis is the analysis of the price movement of a market over time. By learning to read the price action of a market, we can determine a market’s directional bias as well as trade from reoccurring price action patterns or price action setups that reflect changes or continuations in market sentiment.
In simpler terms: Price action analysis is the use of the natural or “raw” price movement of a market to analyze and trade it. This means, you are making all of your trading decisions based purely on the price bars on a “naked” or indicator-free price chart.
All economic variables create price movement which can be easily seen on a market’s price chart. Whether an economic variable is filtered down through a human trader or a computer trader, the movement that it creates in the market will be easily visible on a price chart. Therefore, instead of trying to analyze a million economic variables each day (this is impossible obviously), you can simply learn to trade from price action analysis because this style of trading allows you to easily analyze and make use of all market variables by simply reading and trading off of the price action created by said market variables.
• How do you apply price action analysis to the Forex market?
First, I want to say that price action analysis can be used to trade any financial market, since it simply makes use of the “core” price data of the market. However, my personal favorite market to trade is the Forex market, mainly due to its deep liquidity which makes it easy to enter and exit the market, and also because the Forex market tends to have better trending conditions as well as more volatility which makes for better directional trading and allows price action trading to really shine.
My own personal approach to trading and teaching price action trading is that you can trade effectively from a few time-tested price action setups. There really is no need to try and trade from 25 different price patterns, the Forex market moves in a relatively predictable fashion most of the time, so all we need is a handful of effective price action entry setups to give us a good chance at finding and entering high-probability trades.
The first thing you need to do to apply price action to the Forex market, is to strip your charts of all indicators and get a “clean” price chart with only the price bars in a color you like. I choose simple black and white or blue and red for my colors, but you can pick whichever colors you like (Part 7 will cover an introduction to charting). Here’s an example of my daily chart setup on the EURUSD:
Now, let’s look at an example of a clean and simple price
chart next to a price chart covered with some of the most popular
indicators that many traders use. I want you to look at these two charts
and think about which one seems easier and more logical to trade off
of:
From looking at the two charts above, you will probably agree that it
seems a little silly to hide the natural price action of a market with
messy and confusing indicators. All indicators are derived from price
movement anyways, so if we have a solid method to trade based only on
price movement (price action analysis), it only makes sense that we
would use that instead of trying to analyze messy secondary data.
Tuesday, August 20, 2013
trading strategies and systems
There are many different trading strategies and systems that pro
traders use to trade the markets with, but generally speaking,
professional traders do not use overly-complicated trading methods and
rely mainly on the raw price data of the market to make their analysis
and predictions. To be comprehensive, I wanted to give you guys a brief
overview of all the primary different styles and ways people trade the
Forex market:
Automated / Robot Trading:
Software-based trading systems, also known as forex trading robots, are created by converting a set of trading rules into code that a computer can make use of. The computer will then run this code via trading software that scans the markets for trades that meet the requirements of the trading rules contained in the code. The trades are then executed automatically via the trader’s broker.
Discretionary Trading:
Discretionary Forex trading depends on a trader’s ‘gut’ trading feel or discretionary trading skill to analyze and trade the markets. Discretionary trading allows for a more flexible approach than automated trading but it does take a certain amount of time to develop your discretionary trading skill. Most professional Forex traders are discretionary traders because they understand the market is a dynamic and constantly flowing entity that is best traded by the human mind.
Technical Trading:
Technical trading, or technical analysis, involved analysis of a market’s price chart for making one’s trading decisions. Technical analysis traders use price patterns or ‘technical signals’ to trade the market with an edge. The common belief amongst technical analysis traders is that all economic variables are represented by and factored into the price movement on a price chart.
Fundamental Trading:
Fundamental trading, or news trading, is a trading technique wherein traders rely heavily on market news to make their trading analysis and predictions. Fundamental news does ‘drive’ price movement, but often times the market will react differently than what a particular news release would imply due to the fact that market participants often buy on expectations of future events and sell once the reality of said future event occurs. This is another main reason many pro traders rely more heavily on technical analysis than fundamental analysis, although many do use a combination of the two.
Day Trading:
Traders who day-trade the Forex market are in and out of the market within one day. This means they typically buy and sell currencies over a very short period of time and they may enter and exit numerous trades in one day.
Scalping:
Scalping is similar to day-trading but it relies on more frequent and shorter-term trades than even day-trading does. It is a trading style that refers to jumping in and out of the market many times a day to ‘scalp’ a few pips here and a few pips there, generally with little regard for placing logical stop-losses. Scalping is generally not recommended by experienced / pro traders because it is essentially just gambling.
Swing Trading / Position Trading:
This style of trading involves taking a short to mid-term view on the market and traders who swing trade will be in a trade anywhere from a few hours to several days or weeks. Swing or position traders are generally looking to trade with the near-term daily chart momentum and typically enter anywhere from 2 to 10 trades per month, on average.
Range Trading:
Range trading involves trading a market that is consolidating between obvious support and resistance levels. By watching for trading signals near the support and resistance boundaries of the trading range, traders have a high-probability entry scenario with obvious risk and reward placement.
Trend Trading:
Trend traders are traders who wait for the market to trend and then take advantage of this high-probability movement by looking for entries within the trend. An uptrend is considered to be in place when a market is making higher highs and higher lows, and a downtrend is in place when a market is making lower highs and lower lows. By looking for entries within a trending market, traders have the best chance at making a large profit on their risk. Traders who continually try to trade against the trend by trying to pick the top and bottom of the market, generally lose money quite quickly. Professional Fx traders are largely trend-traders.
Counter-trend Trading:
Trends do indeed end, and if you are a savvy and skilled trader you can successful trade a counter-trend move, but this should not be tried until trend-trading has been mastered as counter-trend trading is inherently more risky than trend-trading and there can be many false tops or bottoms in a trend before the real one emerges.
Carry Trading:
Carry trading, or simply ‘the carry trade’ as it is called, is the strategy of simply buying a high interest-rate currency against a low interest-rate currency and holding the position for what is usually a long period of time. Forex brokers will pay traders the interest rate difference, or ‘swap’, between the two currencies for each day the position is held. The trick here is that higher-yielding currencies are susceptible to large sell-offs if the market loses risk appetite since these currencies are generally considered riskier than safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar or Japanese yen, so it’s a good idea to trail your stop loss up to lock in profit as the carry trade moves in your favor.
Automated / Robot Trading:
Software-based trading systems, also known as forex trading robots, are created by converting a set of trading rules into code that a computer can make use of. The computer will then run this code via trading software that scans the markets for trades that meet the requirements of the trading rules contained in the code. The trades are then executed automatically via the trader’s broker.
Discretionary Trading:
Discretionary Forex trading depends on a trader’s ‘gut’ trading feel or discretionary trading skill to analyze and trade the markets. Discretionary trading allows for a more flexible approach than automated trading but it does take a certain amount of time to develop your discretionary trading skill. Most professional Forex traders are discretionary traders because they understand the market is a dynamic and constantly flowing entity that is best traded by the human mind.
Technical Trading:
Technical trading, or technical analysis, involved analysis of a market’s price chart for making one’s trading decisions. Technical analysis traders use price patterns or ‘technical signals’ to trade the market with an edge. The common belief amongst technical analysis traders is that all economic variables are represented by and factored into the price movement on a price chart.
Fundamental Trading:
Fundamental trading, or news trading, is a trading technique wherein traders rely heavily on market news to make their trading analysis and predictions. Fundamental news does ‘drive’ price movement, but often times the market will react differently than what a particular news release would imply due to the fact that market participants often buy on expectations of future events and sell once the reality of said future event occurs. This is another main reason many pro traders rely more heavily on technical analysis than fundamental analysis, although many do use a combination of the two.
Day Trading:
Traders who day-trade the Forex market are in and out of the market within one day. This means they typically buy and sell currencies over a very short period of time and they may enter and exit numerous trades in one day.
Scalping:
Scalping is similar to day-trading but it relies on more frequent and shorter-term trades than even day-trading does. It is a trading style that refers to jumping in and out of the market many times a day to ‘scalp’ a few pips here and a few pips there, generally with little regard for placing logical stop-losses. Scalping is generally not recommended by experienced / pro traders because it is essentially just gambling.
Swing Trading / Position Trading:
This style of trading involves taking a short to mid-term view on the market and traders who swing trade will be in a trade anywhere from a few hours to several days or weeks. Swing or position traders are generally looking to trade with the near-term daily chart momentum and typically enter anywhere from 2 to 10 trades per month, on average.
Range Trading:
Range trading involves trading a market that is consolidating between obvious support and resistance levels. By watching for trading signals near the support and resistance boundaries of the trading range, traders have a high-probability entry scenario with obvious risk and reward placement.
Trend Trading:
Trend traders are traders who wait for the market to trend and then take advantage of this high-probability movement by looking for entries within the trend. An uptrend is considered to be in place when a market is making higher highs and higher lows, and a downtrend is in place when a market is making lower highs and lower lows. By looking for entries within a trending market, traders have the best chance at making a large profit on their risk. Traders who continually try to trade against the trend by trying to pick the top and bottom of the market, generally lose money quite quickly. Professional Fx traders are largely trend-traders.
Counter-trend Trading:
Trends do indeed end, and if you are a savvy and skilled trader you can successful trade a counter-trend move, but this should not be tried until trend-trading has been mastered as counter-trend trading is inherently more risky than trend-trading and there can be many false tops or bottoms in a trend before the real one emerges.
Carry Trading:
Carry trading, or simply ‘the carry trade’ as it is called, is the strategy of simply buying a high interest-rate currency against a low interest-rate currency and holding the position for what is usually a long period of time. Forex brokers will pay traders the interest rate difference, or ‘swap’, between the two currencies for each day the position is held. The trick here is that higher-yielding currencies are susceptible to large sell-offs if the market loses risk appetite since these currencies are generally considered riskier than safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar or Japanese yen, so it’s a good idea to trail your stop loss up to lock in profit as the carry trade moves in your favor.
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