Technical Analysis, Technical Indicator,Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)

The MACD charts the difference between two exponential moving averages (a longer period EMA subtracted to a short period MA). The most common settings applied to MACD are 26 periods EMA and a 12 period EMA.

The MACD is positive when the EMA(12) is above the EMA(26) indicating that the rate of change of the shorter period MA is higher than the longer period MA and this indicates positive momentum. On the other hand, it is negative when the EMA(12) is below the EMA(26), the rate of change of the shorter period MA is lower than the longer period MA indicating negative momentum. These values are then plotted in a histogram.

MACD Usage

Usage No. 1 - As an oscillator indicating overbought/oversold conditions.

An overbought condition indicates that the instrument has been bought all the way up, and a probable short term reversal is very likely to happen. An oversold condition indicates that bears have been selling an instrument all the way down at a certain point that it is very likely that buyers start taking command of prices attracted by cheap prices (short-term reversal).

[Chart 7]

Every time the MACD gets overbought or oversold the market tends to change direction. But what is considered overbought or oversold with the MACD? Good question... it is relative to the previous highs or lows as there are not “set levels” for the MACD to be considered overbought or oversold. This is one of the weak points if the MACD for this usage.

Although this MACD usage is not very common, there are still traders that use the MACD in this way.

Usage No. 2 - Centerline crossover. When the MACD crosses from negative territory to positive territory, it is called a bullish crossover and indicates positive momentum. On the other hand, when the MACD crosses from positive territory to negative territory it is called a bearish crossover ant it indicates negative momentum.

[Chart 8]

When the histogram crosses from the negative territory to the positive territory it means that the market is gaining positive momentum signaling a long trade.

Usage No 3 - Divergence trading. A divergence occurs when the price behavior differs from the indicator behavior. Theoretically, when the price reaches new highs, the indicator should also reach new highs and the opposite is also true for a bear market. Therefore, when the price makes new highs and the indicator fails to do the same, or when the indicator reaches new highs and the price fails to do the same, a divergence is present. The same is true when the indicator reaches new lows and the price fails to do so or when the price reaches new lows and the indicator fails to do the same.

[Chart 9]

The second low created by the market is clearly at lower levels than the first low. The MACD fails to make a similar low and creates a higher low instead.

This creates a divergence signaling the market isn’t as bearish as it used to be.

Combination of MACD Signals

Please take a look at the following chart and try to determine what we are using to generate the signal (yellow triangle).

[Chart 10]

In this chart we used the divergence signal coupled with the centerline crossover signal as a confirmation. Once the market created the divergence we need the MACD to cross below zero to confirm the signal. Of course we could add the support line break out also (blue horizontal line).

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicator, Moving Averages (MA)

MA’s measure the average price of the previous n-periods. For instance, a MA(5) measures the average price of the last 5 bars. However, as the name implies, the average changes as when a new period is added the last period is dropped. So it is always the MA of the last 5 periods.

As in any other indicator, the period selected is a critical element. The shorter the period the more sensitive the MA is to price movements and is less consistent, and the larger the period chosen, the more consistent it is, but at the same time less sensitive to price fluctuations.

The moving average explained above is called simple moving average (SMA). However, there are also other popular types of moving averages: exponential moving average (EMA) and weighted moving average (WMA). The only difference between the SMA and the other two approaches is the weight assigned to each period. EMA´s and WMA´s assign more weight to the periods that are closer to the current price, while in SMA all periods are equally weighted.

[Chart 1]

Let’s concentrate on the yellow box. The green line is a 10 period exponential moving average (EMA) while the red one is a 10 period simple moving average (SMA). At the beginning of the yellow box there is a small period of consolidation where moving averages are pretty close to each other, there is nothing to be noticed. But once the market starts moving, you will see the EMA(10) lifts up first, then the SMA(10). This is because the EMA gives more weight to periods closer to the market action than SMA’s. This means that EMA’s will always be closer to the current market action than SMA.

Which one to use?

We prefer to use EMA since they give more value to more recent price fluctuations, and reflect what is happening at any given time with more accuracy. However, there are traders that prefer to use SMA.

Usage of Moving Averages

Usage No. 1 - As stated before, MA´s are trend following indicators. They smooth out price fluctuations and make it easier to identify a trend. There are several ways in which this indicator can be used to identify the trend:

1 - Location of the MA in relation to price action. If the MA is above the price, it indicates a downtrend is in place. If the moving average is below the price then it is considered an uptrend.

2 - With the slope of the MA. When the MA is sloping up, the market is considered to be in an uptrend. When it is sloping down the market is considered to be in a downtrend. When there is no slope (close to a flat line), then the market is trendless or sideways

[Chart 2]

The chart above shows both ways to identify a trend. When the price breaks the EMA(21), a significant change in trend could be imminent (or at least a retracement or consolidation period). Also the slope of the EMA(21) keeps good track of the trend. There are also periods of indecision (when the market breaks the MA back and forth). During these periods, the EMA(21) could lead us to take false conclusions about the market condition [when the EMA(21) is almost flat.]

For this reason it is always advised to use a second MA. This allows us to keep track of the location of one MA relative to the other. When the short period MA is above the longer period MA the trend is considered an uptrend, and when the short period moving average is below the larger period MA, the trend is considered to be a downtrend.

[Chart 3]

In this case we added an EMA(75) [red line]. When the EMA(21) [green line] is above the EMA(75) [red line] the trend is considered an uptrend (which is the case for the chart above). On the other hand, when the EMA(21) is below the EMA(75) then the trend is considered to be a downtrend.

Usage No. 2 - MA as support and resistance. Some MA’s are used to establish levels of support and resistance. The most common periods used in MA for this kind of usage are: 50, 100, 200, 144, 89, and 34.

[Chart 4]

In this chart we used an EMA(144) [notice it is the same chart we used for the other MA’s examples]. As you can see this moving average is a very powerful price level in the chart. Almost all the time, something happens when the price action approaches to this EMA, either it bounces off from it or makes a wild break out. This EMA(144) is significant on all charts and all time frames, we personally use it a lot as a very important level of support and resistance.

Usage No. 3 - Moving averages as cross-over signals. Perhaps the most common and easy trading system is this one. It consists in plotting a short period moving average and a larger period moving average. When the short period moving average crosses above the large period moving average, it signals a buy signal. When the short period MA crosses down the larger period moving average, it indicates a sell signal.

[Chart 5]

In the chart above we used an EMA(21) as the short period MA (red line) and an EMA(34) as the longer period MA (green line). There are a total of 5 cross-over signals: 3 buy and 2 sell signals. The three buy signals are generated when the short period MA crosses above the long period MA while the 2 short signals are generated when the short period MA crosses below the long period MA.

Combination of Moving Averages Signals

During trending conditions these types of systems work very well, getting you in the market early and letting you catch most of the move. But during consolidation periods, a moving average crossover gives many false signals.

For this reason is important to determine ahead of time the trend on each trading possibility. If there is an existing trend, then we use a system that works during trending conditions, if there is no trend, then we use a system that works under ranging conditions.

Let’s try to filter signals on the crossover above with a longer period moving average that will be of use to us as trend identification.

[Chart 5]

What we are trying to accomplish with this new large period MA is to filter out signals against the trend. We are using the new EMA(75) as a trend identification – position of the market in relation to the MA. According to this new rule, most of the time the market stays above the EMA(75) indicating an uptrend. What we are going to do now is to validate all long signals and ignore all short signals as they are against the direction of the trend and we know this system works best during trending conditions taking trades in direction of the trend. So we filter out all short signals and go ahead only with long signals. This produces better results than taking every single signal.

Remember also that the signals given by a MA crossover are very sensitive to the number of periods chosen for the MA´s. If short periods of MA´s are chosen, then the system is going to get you in the market early but also will give you many false signals. On the other hand, if larger periods are chosen, the system will get you in the market later, (giving up some profits) but will give you more accurate signals.

Technical Analysis, Introduction To technical indicators

In this , we will review the most important technical indicators used to trade the Forex market.

Technical indicators are no more than a series of data points plotted in a chart that are derived from a mathematical formula applied to the price of any given instrument. In other words, indicators are just a different way in which price movements can be represented over specified periods of time (they offer us a different perspective).

Some technical indicators are used to confirm price action (lagging indicators), others are used to predict price action while some others are used as an alert or warning of a possible break on price action.

A) Lagging indicators - These indicators follow the price action, in other words they confirm what the price just did. The signals that come out of this type of technical indicators usually happen after the change in price begins. These types of indicators are also called trend-following indicators and work best during trending markets, where they allow traders to catch most of the move. During trendless conditions (sideways or ranging market) these types of indicators give many false signals.

B) Leading indicators - These indicators try to predict future price movements. They give signals before the actual price movement begins. These kinds of indicators work best during consolidation periods or trendless markets. During trending conditions, only signals in direction of the existing trend are advised to be taken. During up-trending conditions, leading indicators help us identify oversold conditions (price has falling enough and it is ready to continue its trend). During downtrending conditions, they help us identify overbought conditions (price has rallied enough, and now it is ready to continue its trend).

When using leading indicators it is also advisable to wait for the actual price movements before taking the indicator signal.

Most important lagging indicators: Moving Averages (MA) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).*

Most important leading indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastics, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Momentum.*

*Some of these indicators can be used both as a lagging indicator and as a leading indicator.

Sensitivity vs. Consistency

                                       Before going through all the indicators it is important to understand the relationship between these two concepts. Every indicator represents price movements over a chosen period. Each indicator gives you the option to decide on how many periods you want to go back over to do the calculation. If we shorten the period, we will get more and earlier signals, but at the same time, the percentage of false signals will also increase. If we increase the number of periods, false signals will decrease, but the signal will get us in a trade later, giving up some profits.

It is up to the trader to select the approach that best suits his or her trading personality, trading style and objectives.

Then  we will cover the following topics:

1- Moving Averages - 

                               In this section, we will review moving averages, what they tell you, common uses, etc.

2-Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) –

                                            MACD is a popular indicator that can be used in several ways to our benefit. 

3-Commodity Channel Index (CCI) – 

                                             The CCI is an indicators that quickly reacts to the price action. 

4-Relative Strength Index (RSI) –  

                                            This indicator measures the ration of bull and bear candlesticks, the information is then plotted and can tell us several market conditions. 

5-Stochastics (STC) –  

                               We will review the best overbought/oversold indicator. 

6-Momentum (MOM) – 

                                            Trying to measure the strength/momentum of the market can help us take better decision. 

7- Bollinger Bands (BB) – 

                                          This volatility indicator developed by Bollinger shows us how far the market could go during “normal conditions”. 

8- Average Directional Index (ADX) –  

                                               The ADX is an indicator that measures the strength of the trend in any market. 

9-Fibonacci Retracements – 

                                             Once the market has retraced, the Fibonacci retracements can help us determine where could the retracement could end. 

10-Pivot Points (PP) –  

                                PP is a popular technique that shows us the sentiment of the market and other useful information. 

11- Important Considerations about Technical Indicators –  

                                What’s inside indicators, how should we use them? Do they generate accurate signals? 

12-Time-Frames –  

                               The combination of time-frames is critical to have good results.

Technical Analysis, Important Chart Patterns Considerations

Please take into consideration the following:

1. Most technical chart patterns require confirmation in order to complete the pattern.

2. Chart patterns are present in all timeframes, from the monthly chart to the minute chart. But remember, the greater the time frame the more significant the pattern is. For instance, a rectangle can be formed in the 5-minute chart and at the same time a rectangle can also be formed in the 1-hour chart, in this case, the latter rectangle is more significant. But it doesn't mean that a pattern in a 5 minute chart is not significant, it means that if there are two patterns on different timeframes, the pattern with the longer time frame is more significant. All patterns represent the same supply and demand interaction in different time frames.

3. It is advised to use other techniques in combination with chart patterns, such as candlestick patterns, technical indicators, etc. this way we will increase the significance of every signal.

Technical Analysis, Falling & Rising Wedge

You may wonder why is it that we have the falling and rising wedge in a separate section. The reason is simple, these patterns can be either reversal or continuation patterns. Depending on where the pattern was formed and its slope it could signal a continuation of the trend or a trend reversal. 

Let’s see each one of them.

Continuation Rising Wedge

As all wedges, this one begins wide and contracts as the market reaches new highs:

[Image 3]

Continuation rising wedges are a bearish continuation pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going up. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the support trendline.

What makes this wedge a continuation pattern?

The slope of the wedge is against the previous trend.

Continuation Rising Wedge in Action

[Chart 6]

This rising wedge is a continuation pattern because the slope (upward) of the wedge is against the trend (downtrend). When the pattern got completed (support trendline got broken), led to further downside movements.

Continuation Falling Wedge

[Image 9]

Continuation falling wedges are a bullish continuation pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going down. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the resistance trendline.

What makes this wedge a continuation pattern?

The slope of the wedge is against the previous trend.

Continuation Falling Wedge in Action

[Chart 6]

This falling wedge is a continuation pattern because the slope (downward) of the wedge is against the direction of the trend (uptrend). When the market broke the support trendline and the pattern got completed, it led to further gains.

Reversal Rising Wedge

This pattern begins wide and contracts as the market keeps rising:

[Image 7]

Reversal rising wedges are a bearish reversal pattern found at the end of the uptrend. Starts out wide, and narrows as the market reaches new highs forming a rising wedge when two or more points are connected. The pattern is completed when the price breaks the support trendline.

What makes this wedge a reversal pattern?

The slope of the wedge is in direction of the trend. In this case the market was trending up and the slope of the wedge is upward.

Reversal Rising Wedge in Action

[Chart 6]

This rising wedge is a reversal pattern because the slope (upward) of the wedge is in the same direction of the trend (uptrend). The pattern is completed when the market breaks the support-trendline. Notice the reversal rising wedge here forecasts a retracement, not a trend reversal. The market movement after a wedge or any reversal pattern could produce: a trend reversal, the beginning of a retracement or a consolidation period.

Reversal Falling Wedge

[Image 7]

Reversal falling wedges are a bullish reversal pattern. It starts out wide, but narrows as prices keep going down. The highs and the lows of the pattern form a falling wedge. Two or more touched points are required to form the converging trendlines. This pattern is completed when the price breaks through the resistance trendline.

What makes this wedge a reversal pattern?

The slope of the wedge is in direction of the trend. In this case the market was trending up and the slope of the wedge is upward.

Reversal Falling Wedge in Action

[Chart 6]

This falling wedge is a reversal pattern because the slope (downward) of the wedge is in the same direction of the trend (downtrend). The pattern is not complete until the market breaks the resistance trendline.

Commonly used target for all wedges

Measure the height of the pattern (in its widest side) in terms of pips, and then subtract/sum the same amount of pips from the eventual break out level.

Technical Analysis, Continuation Chart Patterns

All chart patterns reviewed until now were reversal patterns. But, there are also patterns that signal the continuation of the prevailing trend. These patterns are important to understand since they generate trades in direction of the prevailing trend thus generating low risk trading opportunities.

Symmetrical Triangles

These types of patters are formed by two converging trendlines:

Symmetrical Triangles

[Image 6]

Symmetrical triangles indicate consensus, new highs or lows are reached, the price makes a series of lower highs and higher lows, these points connected make two converging trendlines. As the price approaches the apex, supply and demand reaches a temporary equilibrium. The pattern is completed when either the support or resistance trendline is broken.

Bullish Symmetrical Triangle in Action

[Chart 3]

In this 4H EURUSD chart a symmetrical triangle is formed during an uptrend. The market eventually breaks the resistance-trendline and the target price is reached. (Please see below rules for placing target for all triangles).

Bearish Symmetrical Triangle in Action

[Chart 4]

This bearish triangle in the EURUSD 5 min chart is completed when the market breaks the support-trendline.

Commonly target used for symmetrical triangles

Measure the height of the triangle in terms of pips and add/subtract the same amount of pips from the eventual breakout level.

Ascending Triangles

Ascending triangles are formed in an uptrend, after the prices rallied to new highs:

[Image 5]

At this point the bears come in play attracted by the higher prices and start selling at such highs making the price pull back to a support level where the bulls take control again of the market making the prices rally to test previous highs. A second decline is followed to the support-trendline (higher lows). At this point, the bears realize there is not enough supply to take the prices lower, as they close out their short positions; bulls take again the command of prices making them rally to new highs. The pattern is completed when the trendline-resistance line is broken.

Ascending Triangle in Action

[Chart 4]

Commonly used target for ascending triangles

Measure the height of the triangle in terms of pips and add/subtract the same amount of pips from the eventual breakout level.

Descending Triangles

Descending triangles are formed in a downtrend after new lows have been reached:

[Image 6]

At this point the bulls come in play attracted by the lower prices and start buying at such lows making the price rally to the resistance level where the bears take control again of the market making the prices reach lower levels to test previous lows. A second rally is followed to the resistance-trendline (lower highs). At this point, bulls realize there is not enough demand to take the prices higher, as they close out their long positions; bears take again the command of the market making it rally to new lows. The pattern is completed when the trendline-support line is broken.

Descending Triangle in Action

[Chart 5]

Triangles are among the most reliable chart patterns of technical analysis, as changes in supply and demand are very well defined.

Commonly used target for descending triangles

Measure the height of the triangle in terms of pips and add/subtract the same amount of pips from the eventual breakout level.

Bullish Rectangles

Bullish rectangles are periods of consolidation that appear after a sharp move:

[Image 2]

These types of rectangles or channels are periods of consolidation (after a sharp rally) where supply and demand meet. At this period of indecision, investors and traders try to digest the recent sharp move. In a bullish rectangle, bulls prefer to take partial profits, and wait for further pull backs so they can make their move again. This pattern is completed when the resistance is broken.

Bullish Rectangles in Action

[Image 9]

Bearish Rectangles

Bearish rectangles are periods of consolidation that appear after a sharp decline:

[Image 10]

In a bearish rectangle, bears close most of their short positions and wait for further rallies so they can sell again at higher prices. Although the sentiment is still strong in favor of the prevailing trend, traders and investors prefer to take a rest. The support must be broken in order for the pattern to be complete.

Bearish rectangle in Action

[Chart 6]

Bears take a little rest after the sharp decline. When the market breaks the support zone the pattern is completed.

Remember again, once the price breaks an important support/resistance zone, it becomes an important resistance/support zone. As in the chart above, the resistance became an important support line where the price bounced off to reach new highs.

Rectangles commonly used target levels

Measure the height of the triangle and add/subtract it to the point of the eventual break out.

Technical Analysis, Reversal Chart Patterns

Double Top

The double top is made up by two extreme peaks like the illustration below:

[Image 3]

After the first peak, there must be a decline of no more than 25% of the uptrend. (This decline makes up a support that must be broken for the pattern to be complete). Then the price rallies again to the resistance made by the first peak. Highs should be roughly equal. Then the price falls back down from resistance to support, and finally breaks the support (yellow box).

This type of patterns can be used during trending markets signaling a possible reversal or during trendless markets, to signal a possible change in the direction of the market.

Double Top in Action

[Chart 1]

See top #1 and top #2 have similar highs. The pattern is not valid until the market breaks the main support which happens in the yellow box. Notice also how the support zone becomes a resistance and stopped the market from reaching higher levels.

Double top commonly used target

Measure the amount of pips from the first peak to the support line (where it bounced back up to the second peak). Subtract the same amount of pips from the support line. This last quote will give us the target price.

Double Bottom

The double bottom pattern is made up by two extreme lows like the illustration below:

[Image 3]

After the first low, there must be a rally of no more than 25% of the downtrend. (This rally makes up the main resistance that must be broken for the pattern to be complete). Then the price drops again to the resistance made by the first low. Lows should be roughly equal. Then the price rallies again from the second low to the main resistance, and finally breaks the main resistance zone (yellow box).

This type of pattern can be used during trending markets signaling a possible reversal or during trendless markets, to signal a possible change in the direction of the market.

Double Bottom in Action

[Chart 2]

Lows #1 and #2 have similar levels. The pattern not considered valid until the market breaks the main resistance zone. Notice how the resistance zone becomes a support zone preventing prices from falling below those levels.

Double bottom commonly used target

Measure the amount of pips from the first low to the resistance line. Add the same amount to the resistance line; this last quote will give us the target price.

Both patterns reflect changes in supply and demand. In a double top, it reflects the inability of buyers to take the prices to new highs and trade above them. In a double bottom, the inability of sellers to break the lows and pull the prices further down.

Remember: The resistance/support made after the first peak/sell off could act as a support/resistance after the price breaks the zone.

Triple Top

The triple top is similar to double tops, but has three peaks (instead of two):

Triple Top

[Image 6]

Same mechanics are followed here. A prior trend has to be reversed, three peaks reasonably equivalent to each other, and an important support to be broken in order to complete the pattern. In this pattern the changes in supply and demand take a little longer to change the perspective of traders about the markets.

Triple top in Action

[Chart 3]

Three peaks form the triple top, the pattern becomes valid when the market breaks the main support area. Notice how the market retraces back to the resistance zone (previously a support zone) to test it.

The mechanics to get the target price for these patterns are the same as the double top and bottom.

Triple Bottom

The triple bottom is similar to double bottoms, but has three troughs (instead of two):

Triple Bottom

[Image 8]

Same mechanics are followed here, a prior trend has to be reversed, three troughs reasonably equivalent to each other, and an important resistance to be broken in order for the pattern to be complete. In this pattern the balance in supply and demand take a little longer to change the perspective of traders and investors about the markets.

Triple Bottom in Action

[Chart 4]

This triple bottom becomes valid when the market breaks through the main resistance area (yellow box).

The mechanics to get the target price for these patterns are the same as the double top and bottoms.

Head & Shoulders Top

The pattern is formed by three successive peaks:

[Image 4]

The second peak or the “head” must be the highest peak. The two other peaks or “shoulders” should be roughly equal. A support is made by the first and second bounces from the first and second peaks; this is commonly named as a neckline. The pattern is completed after the neckline is broken through and the price trades below it. The neckline becomes an important resistance once it has been broken.

Head and Shoulders in Action

[Chart 5]

This is a head & shoulders pattern under development, the market has not been able to break the neckline, thus it isn’t a valid head and shoulders pattern yet. Why did we use this one? Because it is important to track them when they are forming (not after the fact, when we know what happened) and see how they look like. This is the GBPJPY weekly chart, so if this pattern proves to be valid, it has a potential of more than 2,000 pips.

Head and shoulders top commonly used target

Measure the amount of pips from the highest peak (head) to the neckline. Subtract the same amount from the neckline; this final price will give you the target price.

Head & Shoulders Bottom

This pattern is made off three consecutive lows.

The second low is the deepest low (head), while the other two lows are roughly equal (shoulders). The pattern is considered complete when the neckline is broken.

Head and Shoulders in Action

Notice here the neckline is similar to a trendline (instead of a resistance).

Head and shoulders bottom commonly used target

Measure the amount of pips from the lowest low reached (head) to the neckline, and add this amount to the neckline to get the target price.