Showing posts with label trendline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trendline. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Technical Analysis, Technical Indicators, Average Directional Index (ADX)

The ADX was developed by Welles Wilder. He created it as an attempt to determine the strength of the current trend (be it up or down).
The ADX reading derives from two other indicators created also by Welles Wilder called Positive Directional Indicator (+DI) and the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI).
The +DI measures the force of the up moves while the –DI measures the force of the down moves.
The ADX does not recognize between an uptrend and a downtrend, it only assess the strength of the current trend. +DI and -DI can be used to determine whether the trend is up or down.

ADX Usage
Usage No. 1 – Strength of the Trend. The ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 1 and 100. When the readings are above 30, the market is considered to be in a strong trend, when the readings are below 20 the market is considered to be sideways, while readings between 20 are 30 are undefined.
ADX to measure the strength of the Trend

[Chart 26]
ADX – Black Line
+DI – Blue Dotted line
-DI – Red Dotted Line
It is said that when the blue line (+DI) is above the red line (-DI) the market is in an uptrend, and when the red line (-DI) is above the blue line (+DI) the market is in an uptrend.
In the chart above, strong trends are marked when the ADX reading go above 30.

Usage No 2 – Determine potential changes in the market trend. To use this indicator to determine changes in the market trend we need to identify divergences. When the divergence is present near the top indicates the trend is weakening, when it is present near the bottom it indicates the trend is strengthening.
Weakening trend

Weakening Trend

[Chart 27]
In the chart above, the divergence is present near the top indicating a weakening trend.

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Technical Analysis, Reversal Chart Patterns



Double Top
The double top is made up by two extreme peaks like the illustration below:
Double Top Pattern
[Image 3]
After the first peak, there must be a decline of no more than 25% of the uptrend. (This decline makes up a support that must be broken for the pattern to be complete). Then the price rallies again to the resistance made by the first peak. Highs should be roughly equal. Then the price falls back down from resistance to support, and finally breaks the support (yellow box).
This type of patterns can be used during trending markets signaling a possible reversal or during trendless markets, to signal a possible change in the direction of the market.

Double Top in Action
Double Top in Action
[Chart 1]
See top #1 and top #2 have similar highs. The pattern is not valid until the market breaks the main support which happens in the yellow box. Notice also how the support zone becomes a resistance and stopped the market from reaching higher levels.

Double top commonly used target
Measure the amount of pips from the first peak to the support line (where it bounced back up to the second peak). Subtract the same amount of pips from the support line. This last quote will give us the target price.

Double Bottom
The double bottom pattern is made up by two extreme lows like the illustration below:
Double Bottom Pattern
[Image 3]
After the first low, there must be a rally of no more than 25% of the downtrend. (This rally makes up the main resistance that must be broken for the pattern to be complete). Then the price drops again to the resistance made by the first low. Lows should be roughly equal. Then the price rallies again from the second low to the main resistance, and finally breaks the main resistance zone (yellow box).
This type of pattern can be used during trending markets signaling a possible reversal or during trendless markets, to signal a possible change in the direction of the market.

Double Bottom in Action
Double Bottom in Action


[Chart 2]
Lows #1 and #2 have similar levels. The pattern not considered valid until the market breaks the main resistance zone. Notice how the resistance zone becomes a support zone preventing prices from falling below those levels.

Double bottom commonly used target
Measure the amount of pips from the first low to the resistance line. Add the same amount to the resistance line; this last quote will give us the target price.
Both patterns reflect changes in supply and demand. In a double top, it reflects the inability of buyers to take the prices to new highs and trade above them. In a double bottom, the inability of sellers to break the lows and pull the prices further down.
Remember: The resistance/support made after the first peak/sell off could act as a support/resistance after the price breaks the zone.

Triple Top
The triple top is similar to double tops, but has three peaks (instead of two):
Triple Top


Triple Top Pattern
[Image 6]
Same mechanics are followed here. A prior trend has to be reversed, three peaks reasonably equivalent to each other, and an important support to be broken in order to complete the pattern. In this pattern the changes in supply and demand take a little longer to change the perspective of traders about the markets.

Triple top in Action
Triple Top in Action
[Chart 3]
Three peaks form the triple top, the pattern becomes valid when the market breaks the main support area. Notice how the market retraces back to the resistance zone (previously a support zone) to test it.
The mechanics to get the target price for these patterns are the same as the double top and bottom.

Triple Bottom
The triple bottom is similar to double bottoms, but has three troughs (instead of two):
Triple Bottom


Triple Bottom Pattern
[Image 8]
Same mechanics are followed here, a prior trend has to be reversed, three troughs reasonably equivalent to each other, and an important resistance to be broken in order for the pattern to be complete. In this pattern the balance in supply and demand take a little longer to change the perspective of traders and investors about the markets.

Triple Bottom in Action
Triple Bottom in Action
[Chart 4]
This triple bottom becomes valid when the market breaks through the main resistance area (yellow box).
The mechanics to get the target price for these patterns are the same as the double top and bottoms.

Head & Shoulders Top
The pattern is formed by three successive peaks:
Head and Shoulders Pattern
[Image 4]
The second peak or the “head” must be the highest peak. The two other peaks or “shoulders” should be roughly equal. A support is made by the first and second bounces from the first and second peaks; this is commonly named as a neckline. The pattern is completed after the neckline is broken through and the price trades below it. The neckline becomes an important resistance once it has been broken.

Head and Shoulders in Action
Head and Shoulders in Action


[Chart 5]
This is a head & shoulders pattern under development, the market has not been able to break the neckline, thus it isn’t a valid head and shoulders pattern yet. Why did we use this one? Because it is important to track them when they are forming (not after the fact, when we know what happened) and see how they look like. This is the GBPJPY weekly chart, so if this pattern proves to be valid, it has a potential of more than 2,000 pips.

Head and shoulders top commonly used target
Measure the amount of pips from the highest peak (head) to the neckline. Subtract the same amount from the neckline; this final price will give you the target price.

Head & Shoulders Bottom
This pattern is made off three consecutive lows.


Head and Shoulders Bottom Pattern


The second low is the deepest low (head), while the other two lows are roughly equal (shoulders). The pattern is considered complete when the neckline is broken.

Head and Shoulders in Action
Head and Shoulders in Action


Notice here the neckline is similar to a trendline (instead of a resistance).

Head and shoulders bottom commonly used target
Measure the amount of pips from the lowest low reached (head) to the neckline, and add this amount to the neckline to get the target price.

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Technical Analysis Trends and Range bound Conditions

Trend
One of the basic principles of technical analysis, as we have already discussed, is that the price (or market) trends. But what exactly does that mean? Or more importantly, when is the market trending?
It is said that the market is trending when price action reaches –
UPTRENDING - successive higher highs and higher lows on its way up
DOWNTRENDING - lower lows and lower highs on its way down.
Here is a chart trending up
Uptrend




And here is a chart trending down
Downtrend




Chart 1 and 2 are clear examples of trending markets.
Another important question traders should answer is, when is the market not considered to be trending?
That leads us to the next concept...

Range Bound and Ranging Markets
The market is not trending when it is not following a clear direction (up or down). This is condition is also called as sideways or trendless markets.
Now, the market could be ranging in two different ways: when there are well defined extreme levels (support and resistance zones are well established) or when the market has no defined extreme levels.
Here is a sideway market with no well defined extremes.
Range Bound Market




As you can see, the market is not following any direction. It keeps ranging back and forth, making higher highs but also lower lows with no consistent pattern. When the market is ranging like this it is very difficult to trade.
Here is a ranging market with well defined extremes:
Ranging Market




When the market is ranging this way, trading it is relatively easier, traders tend to buy around the support zone and sell around the resistance zone.

Trendlines
Trendlines are very important tools for trend identification, confirmation and to measure the intensity of the trend.
Trendlines are lines connecting two or more important points when price has bottomed or topped and then it is extended to the future where it is expected to act again as a support or resistance zone. So we can say trendlines are support and resistance lines with either and upward (uptrends) or downward (downtrends) slope.
Let’s take a look at some charts.
Uptrend trendline: two or more higher lows connected (upward slope), identifying an uptrend.
Trendlines




There are four points (higher lows) connecting this up-trendline. As long as the market keeps trading above the trendline the uptrend is intact. If a sustained break below the trendline happened, a reversal, a correction or a consolidation period (range) is plausible. 

Downtrend trendline:
                      two or more lower highs connected (downward slope).
Trendline




Here we have a downtrend trendline; it suggests that the demand for the given instrument is decreasing even when the prices are falling. Four points (lower highs) connect the trendline indicating a downtrend. As long as the price stays below the trendline, the trend stays intact. But as we see, the trendline is violated indicating that the market will reverse, consolidate or have a correction.

Two more points:
- The intensity of the trend is measured by the slope of the trendline. The steeper the trendline the stronger the trend is and the more likely prices are to react at extreme levels.
- The significance of trendlines depends on how many times price has bounced off from it: the more times the price has bounced from the trendline, the more significance the trendline has and the more likely it is to hold the price from breaking it.

At the beginning of this section we mentioned trendlines are like support and resistance zones, and it’s true because the same rules apply for both of them:
- A sustained break above/below the trendline need to happen before the trendline gets violated.
- When the market approaches to the trendline, we should think the market will get rejected from it.
- Once a trendline gets violated, it could become a resistance if it was a support and vice versa.
- Some times it can be difficult to find a trendline even when the markets are trending
- Trendlines should be part of the analysis and not the tool to make the final decision to get in or out the market. It will produce better results when used in combination with other technical tools.